Capabilities of the CTIPe model to reproduce storm conditions

Abstract

Since the ionosphere is impacting various communication and navigation applications relying on radio signal transmission, accurate monitoring and forecasting of the ionosphere is of great importance. For this purpose, physics based modelling of the coupled thermosphere ionosphere system is rather important, because good forecasts of ionospheric variability especially during storms need to consider the various physical driving processes in the thermosphere and ionosphere. This includes the energy transmission from the solar wind to the magnetosphere and ionosphere-thermosphere, as well as the electric field modifications, enhancement of ionosphere currents and thermosphere circulation and composition disturbances. One of the state of the art numerical models is the Coupled Thermosphere Ionosphere Plasmasphere electrodynamics (CTIPe) model. The implementation of the model has been enhanced step by step over decades. Recent developments improved the capabilities of reproducing thermosphere ionosphere conditions during storms. These capabilities will be demonstrated based on comparison of CTIPe results during the St. Patrick’s Day storm on 17 March 2015 with ground and space based observations. We will make use of Swarm measurements, ionosondes and GNSS based TEC estimations. The validation results show a rather good reproduction of thermosphere conditions with CTIPe. Especially radiative cooling has improved significantly. The deviations between model and observations are larger for the ionosphere. Based on the validation results the limitations of the model are discussed and next steps for implementation are proposed.