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Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models

Gillett, Zoe E. and Arblaster, Julie M. and Dittus, Andrea J. and Deushi, Makoto and Jöckel, Patrick and Kinnison, Douglas E. and Morgenstern, Olaf and Plummer, David A. and Revell, Laura E. and Rozanov, Eugene and Schofield, Robyn and Stenke, Andrea and Stone, Kane A. and Tilmes, Simone (2019) Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models. Journal of Climate, 32 (11), pp. 3131-3151. American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1. ISSN 0894-8755.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1


Studies have recently reported statistically significant relationships between observed year-to-year spring Antarctic ozone variability and the Southern Hemisphere annular mode and surface temperatures in spring–summer. This study investigates whether current chemistry–climate models (CCMs) can capture these relationships, in particular, the connection between November total column ozone (TCO) and Australian summer surface temperatures, where years with anomalously high TCO over the Antarctic polar cap tend to be followed by warmer summers. The interannual ozone–temperature teleconnection is examined over the historical period in the observations and simulations from the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) and nine other models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). There is a systematic difference between the WACCM experiments forced with prescribed observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and those with an interactive ocean. Strong correlations between TCO and Australian temperatures are only obtained for the uncoupled experiment, suggesting that the SSTs could be important for driving both variations in Australian temperatures and the ozone hole, with no causal link between the two. Other CCMI models also tend to capture this relationship with more fidelity when driven by observed SSTs, although additional research and targeted modeling experiments are required to determine causality and further explore the role of model biases and observational uncertainty. The results indicate that CCMs can reproduce the relationship between spring ozone and summer Australian climate reported in observational studies, suggesting that incorporating ozone variability could improve seasonal predictions; however, more work is required to understand the difference between the coupled and uncoupled simulations.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/127422/
Document Type:Article
Title:Evaluating the Relationship between Interannual Variations in the Antarctic Ozone Hole and Southern Hemisphere Surface Climate in Chemistry–Climate Models
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Gillett, Zoe E.Monash Univ., Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Arblaster, Julie M.Monash Univ., Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Dittus, Andrea J.Monash Univ., Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Deushi, MakotoMRI, Tsukuba, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Kinnison, Douglas E.NCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USAUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, OlafNIWA, Wellington, NeuseelandUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, David A.Env. Canada, Montreal, KanadaUNSPECIFIED
Revell, Laura E.ETH-IAC, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, EugeneETH-IAC, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Schofield, RobynMonash Univ., Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Stenke, AndreaETH-IAC, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Stone, Kane A.Monash Univ., Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Tilmes, SimoneNCAR, Boulder, Colorado, USAUNSPECIFIED
Date:8 May 2019
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Climate
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0273.1
Page Range:pp. 3131-3151
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
Keywords:Southern Hemisphere; Annular mode; Ozone; Seasonal forecasting; Climate models; Climate variability
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research, R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:16 May 2019 12:18
Last Modified:31 May 2020 03:00

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