elib
DLR-Header
DLR-Logo -> http://www.dlr.de
DLR Portal Home | Impressum | Datenschutz | Kontakt | English
Schriftgröße: [-] Text [+]

What Types of Cars Will We Be Driving? Methods of Forecasting Car Travel Demand by Vehicle Type

Mocanu, Tudor (2018) What Types of Cars Will We Be Driving? Methods of Forecasting Car Travel Demand by Vehicle Type. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. US National Research Council. doi: 10.1177/0361198118797457. ISSN 0361-1981.

[img] PDF
617kB

Offizielle URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0361198118797457

Kurzfassung

New technologies are emerging in the private vehicle market. Conventional propulsion systems are set to be replaced by alternative, more environment-friendly ones (e.g., electric vehicles), and certain new features, like autonomous driving, will possibly change the way private cars are employed. To assess the impact of such technologies, one must estimate how often and for which trips these vehicle types will be used. Another issue is the exact localization of certain vehicle types on the network, to assess environmental effects and identify where specific roadside infrastructure (e.g., charging stations) will be required. This paper presents four approaches to forecasting car usage by vehicle type using a macroscopic travel demand model in combination with a vehicle fleet or technology diffusion model. Integrating the two types of models requires tools ranging from assumptions and extrapolation of empirical data to synthetic or incremental discrete choice models. The approaches are employed in a case study forecasting travel demand using privately owned autonomous vehicles (AVs) in Germany in 2030. Despite identical input data, the estimated proportion of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) using AVs varies between 11% and 23% of overall car VMT, depending on the approach chosen. The reasons for this variation in results are investigated and some recommendations are given. To avoid the difficulties of fitting a synthetic model to observed data and to increase the accuracy of the results, the recommendation is to formulate the vehicle type choice as an incremental model added to the travel demand model.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/125257/
Dokumentart:Zeitschriftenbeitrag
Titel:What Types of Cars Will We Be Driving? Methods of Forecasting Car Travel Demand by Vehicle Type
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Mocanu, TudorTudor.Mocanu (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-2883-0121NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:29 November 2018
Erschienen in:Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Ja
In ISI Web of Science:Ja
DOI:10.1177/0361198118797457
Verlag:US National Research Council
ISSN:0361-1981
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:Travel Demand Modeling, Vehicle Use, Fleet Modeling, Vehicle Technology Diffusion, Autonomous Vehicles
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrssystem
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrsforschung > Personenverkehr
Hinterlegt von: Mocanu, Tudor
Hinterlegt am:11 Jan 2019 09:57
Letzte Änderung:30 Okt 2023 14:28

Nur für Mitarbeiter des Archivs: Kontrollseite des Eintrags

Blättern
Suchen
Hilfe & Kontakt
Informationen
electronic library verwendet EPrints 3.3.12
Gestaltung Webseite und Datenbank: Copyright © Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR). Alle Rechte vorbehalten.