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ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN AVIATION USING A GLOBAL AIRCRAFT FLEET FORECASTING MODEL

Terekhov, Ivan and Schilling, Thomas and Niklaß, Malte and Ghosh, Robin (2018) ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN AVIATION USING A GLOBAL AIRCRAFT FLEET FORECASTING MODEL. AEGATS 2018, Toulouse, France.

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Abstract

The paper presents the global fleet forecast model FFWD which forecasts world fleet fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This forecast is based on current demand forecasts, fleet data, retirement curves, expected future aircraft entry into service timelines, and market penetrations. To assess the influence of novel aircraft configurations (fleet renewal) on global CO2 emissions, a yearly fuel consumption and utilization value is assigned to each active aircraft. For the new aircraft in the fleet, different technology combinations can be modelled, which lead to variations in CO2 emissions level. Thus, different technology scenarios can be built, where each scenario represents different technology combinations and entries into service. Therefore, the proposed modelling approach allows for an estimation of the future CO2 level evolution for each technology scenario

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/123299/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN AVIATION USING A GLOBAL AIRCRAFT FLEET FORECASTING MODEL
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Terekhov, IvanIvan.Terekhov (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Schilling, Thomasthomas.schilling (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Niklaß, MalteMalte.Niklass (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Ghosh, RobinRobin.Ghosh (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:October 2018
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:technologies, aviation, assessment, global aircraft fleet, forecast, modelling, technology roadmap, scenario, CO2
Event Title:AEGATS 2018
Event Location:Toulouse, France
Event Type:international Conference
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy and Material Resources for Sustainable Futures - Integrating at Different Scales
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SY - Energy Systems Analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment
Location: Hamburg
Institutes and Institutions:Air Transport Operations > System Analysis Air Transport
Deposited By: Terekhov, Ivan
Deposited On:01 Feb 2019 12:43
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:21

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