ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES IN AVIATION USING A GLOBAL AIRCRAFT FLEET FORECASTING MODEL

Kurzfassung

The paper presents the global fleet forecast model FFWD which forecasts world fleet fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. This forecast is based on current demand forecasts, fleet data, retirement curves, expected future aircraft entry into service timelines, and market penetrations. To assess the influence of novel aircraft configurations (fleet renewal) on global CO2 emissions, a yearly fuel consumption and utilization value is assigned to each active aircraft. For the new aircraft in the fleet, different technology combinations can be modelled, which lead to variations in CO2 emissions level. Thus, different technology scenarios can be built, where each scenario represents different technology combinations and entries into service. Therefore, the proposed modelling approach allows for an estimation of the future CO2 level evolution for each technology scenario