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Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry--climate model

Revell, Laura E. and Stenke, Andrea and Tummon, Fiona and Feinberg, Aryeh and Rozanov, Eugene and Peter, Thomas and Abraham, N. Luke and Akiyoshi, Hideharu and Archibald, Alexander T. and Butchart, Neil and Deushi, Makoto and Jöckel, Patrick and Kinnison, Douglas and Michou, Martine and Morgenstern, Olaf and O'Connor, Fiona M. and Oman, Luke D. and Pitari, Giovanni and Plummer, David A. and Schofield, Robyn and Stone, Kane and Tilmes, Simone and Visioni, Daniele and Yamashita, Yousuke and Zeng, Guang (2018) Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry--climate model. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 18 (21), pp. 16155-16172. Copernicus Publications. DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018 ISSN 1680-7316

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Official URL: https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/16155/2018/

Abstract

Previous multi-model intercomparisons have shown that chemistry–climate models exhibit significant biases in tropospheric ozone compared with observations. We investigate annual-mean tropospheric column ozone in 15 models participating in the SPARC–IGAC (Stratosphere–troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate–International Global Atmospheric Chemistry) Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). These models exhibit a positive bias, on average, of up to 40%–50% in the Northern Hemisphere compared with observations derived from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument and Microwave Limb Sounder (OMI/MLS), and a negative bias of up to  ∼ 30% in the Southern Hemisphere. SOCOLv3.0 (version 3 of the Solar-Climate Ozone Links CCM), which participated in CCMI, simulates global-mean tropospheric ozone columns of 40.2DU – approximately 33% larger than the CCMI multi-model mean. Here we introduce an updated version of SOCOLv3.0, "SOCOLv3.1", which includes an improved treatment of ozone sink processes, and results in a reduction in the tropospheric column ozone bias of up to 8DU, mostly due to the inclusion of N2O5 hydrolysis on tropospheric aerosols. As a result of these developments, tropospheric column ozone amounts simulated by SOCOLv3.1 are comparable with several other CCMI models. We apply Gaussian process emulation and sensitivity analysis to understand the remaining ozone bias in SOCOLv3.1. This shows that ozone precursors (nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide, methane and other volatile organic compounds, VOCs) are responsible for more than 90% of the variance in tropospheric ozone. However, it may not be the emissions inventories themselves that result in the bias, but how the emissions are handled in SOCOLv3.1, and we discuss this in the wider context of the other CCMI models. Given that the emissions data set to be used for phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project includes approximately 20% more NOx than the data set used for CCMI, further work is urgently needed to address the challenges of simulating sub-grid processes of importance to tropospheric ozone in the current generation of chemistry–climate models.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/123135/
Document Type:Article
Title:Tropospheric ozone in CCMI models and Gaussian process emulation to understand biases in the SOCOLv3 chemistry--climate model
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Revell, Laura E.Univ. Canterbury, NeuseelandUNSPECIFIED
Stenke, AndreaETH, Zürich, CHUNSPECIFIED
Tummon, FionaETH, Zürich, CHUNSPECIFIED
Feinberg, AryehETH, Zürich, CHUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, EugenePMOD, Davos, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Peter, ThomasETH, Zürich, CHUNSPECIFIED
Abraham, N. LukeUniv. of Cambridge, UKUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, HideharuNIES, Tsukuba, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Archibald, Alexander T.Cambridge Univ., UKUNSPECIFIED
Butchart, NeilMet Office, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Deushi, MakotoMeteorological Research Inst., Tsukuba, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Kinnison, DouglasNCAR Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Michou, MartineMétéo‐France, Toulouse, FUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, OlafNIWA, Wellington, NeuseelandUNSPECIFIED
O'Connor, Fiona M.Met Office, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Oman, Luke D.NASA Goddard, Green Belt, MD, USAUNSPECIFIED
Pitari, GiovanniUniv. Aquila, ItalienUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, David A.Environment Canada, Toronto, KanadaUNSPECIFIED
Schofield, RobynUniv. Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Stone, KaneUniv. Melbourne, AustralienUNSPECIFIED
Tilmes, SimoneUniv. Aquila, ItalienUNSPECIFIED
Visioni, DanieleUniv. Aquila, ItalienUNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, YousukeNIES, Tsukuba, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Zeng, GuangNIWA, Wellington, NeuseelandUNSPECIFIED
Date:13 November 2018
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:18
DOI :10.5194/acp-18-16155-2018
Page Range:pp. 16155-16172
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:EMAC, CCMI, ESCiMo, Chemistry Climate Modelling, tropospheric ozone, SOCOL
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung, R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:19 Nov 2018 12:33
Last Modified:02 May 2019 13:59

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