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No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI

Ayarzagüena, Blanca and Polvani, Lorenzo M. and Langematz, Ulrike and Akiyoshi, H. and Bekki, S. and Butchart, Neal and Dameris, Martin and Deushi, M. and Hardiman, S. C. and Jöckel, Patrick and Klekociuk, A. and Marchand, M. and Michou, M. and Morgenstern, Olaf and O'Connor, F. M. and Oman, L. D. and Plummer, D. A. and Revell, L. and Rozanov, E. and Saint-Martin, D. and Scinocca, J. and Stenke, A. and Stone, K. and Yamashita, Y. and Yoshida, K. and Zeng, G. (2018) No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 18 (15), pp. 11277-11287. Copernicus Publications. DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018 ISSN 1680-7316

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Official URL: https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/11277/2018/

Abstract

Major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) are the largest instance of wintertime variability in the Arctic stratosphere. Because SSWs are able to cause significant surface weather anomalies on intra-seasonal timescales, several previous studies have focused on their potential future change, as might be induced by anthropogenic forcings. However, a wide range of results have been reported, from a future increase in the frequency of SSWs to an actual decrease. Several factors might explain these contradictory results, notably the use of different metrics for the identification of SSWs and the impact of large climatological biases in single-model studies. To bring some clarity, we here revisit the question of future SSW changes, using an identical set of metrics applied consistently across 12 different models participating in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative. Our analysis reveals that no statistically significant change in the frequency of SSWs will occur over the 21st century, irrespective of the metric used for the identification of the event. Changes in other SSW characteristics – such as their duration, deceleration of the polar night jet, and the tropospheric forcing – are also assessed: again, we find no evidence of future changes over the 21st century.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/121395/
Document Type:Article
Title:No robust evidence of future changes in major stratospheric sudden warmings: a multi-model assessment from CCMI
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Ayarzagüena, BlancaUniversidad Complutense de Madrid, Madrid, SpainUNSPECIFIED
Polvani, Lorenzo M.Columbia University, New York, USAUNSPECIFIED
Langematz, UlrikeMeteorologisches Institut, Freie Universität BerlinUNSPECIFIED
Akiyoshi, H.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Bekki, S.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Butchart, NealMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Dameris, MartinDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Deushi, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Hardiman, S. C.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Klekociuk, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Marchand, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Michou, M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Morgenstern, OlafNIWA, Wellington, New ZealandUNSPECIFIED
O'Connor, F. M.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Oman, L. D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D. A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Revell, L.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rozanov, E.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Saint-Martin, D.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Scinocca, J.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Stenke, A.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Stone, K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Yamashita, Y.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Yoshida, K.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Zeng, G.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:13 August 2018
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:18
DOI :10.5194/acp-18-11277-2018
Page Range:pp. 11277-11287
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:stratospheric dynamics, stratosphere, EMAC, MESSy, ESCiMo, stratospheric warming, multi-model, CCMI
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung, R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:16 Aug 2018 13:15
Last Modified:02 May 2019 13:59

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