A systemic view on autonomous vehicles: Policy aspects for a sustainable transportation planning

Abstract

Over the past few years, many studies have provided detailed descriptions of the potential benefits associated with the introduction of autonomous vehicles, such as improvements in traffic flows, local and global emissions, traffic safety, cost efficiency of public and private transport operations, etc. Additionally, the mobilization of mobility impaired people and the independent car use of travelers without driver’s license has been identified as a potential benefit for users. However, only estimating the benefits of these direct (or first-order) effects is unlikely to show the full picture of consequences that will emerge once autonomous vehicles enter the roads. In this paper, we therefore put emphasis on discussing systemic (or second-order) effects. The paper presents a conceptual exploration of these effects based on literature and research findings to date. We show that these systemic effects – especially in urban areas and without adequate policy intervention – have the potential to eliminate at least some of the benefits initially associated with autonomous vehicles. Following this systemic view on autonomous vehicles, we finally discuss policy aspects for responsible authorities and planners on how to prepare transportation systems for the challenges related to the introduction of autonomous vehicles and conclude with areas of research that seem highly important to be investigated further in this context.