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Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery

Meul, Stefanie and Langematz, Ulrike and Kröger, Philipp and Oberländer-Hayn, Sophie and Jöckel, Patrick (2018) Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP), 18 (10), pp. 7721-7738. Copernicus Publications. DOI: 10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018 ISSN 1680-7316

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Official URL: https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/7721/2018/

Abstract

Using a state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model we investigate the future change in stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) of ozone, the drivers of this change, as well as the future distribution of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere. Supplementary to previous work, our focus is on changes on the monthly scale. The global mean annual influx of stratospheric ozone into the troposphere is projected to increase by 53 % between the years 2000 and 2100 under the RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenario. The change in ozone mass flux (OMF) into the troposphere is positive throughout the year with maximal increase in the summer months of the respective hemispheres. In the Northern Hemisphere (NH) this summer maximum STE increase is a result of increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, whilst in the Southern Hemisphere(SH) it is due to equal contributions from decreasing levels of ozone depleting substances (ODS) and increasing GHG concentrations. In the SH the GHG effect is dominating in the winter months. A large ODS-related ozone increase in the SH stratosphere leads to a change in the seasonal breathing term which results in a future decrease of the OMF into the troposphere in the SH in September and October. The resulting distributions of stratospheric ozone in the troposphere differ for the GHG and ODS changes due to the following: (a) ozone input occurs at different regions for GHG- (midlatitudes) and ODS-changes (high latitudes); and (b) stratospheric ozone is more efficiently mixed towards lower tropospheric levels in the case of ODS changes, whereas tropospheric ozone loss rates grow when GHG concentrations rise. The comparison between the moderate RCP6.0 and the extreme RCP8.5 emission scenarios reveals that the annual global OMF trend is smaller in the moderate scenario, but the resulting change in the contribution of ozone with stratospheric origin (O3s) to ozone in the troposphere is of comparable magnitude in both scenarios. This is due to the larger tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and hence ozone production in the RCP8.5 scenario.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/120238/
Document Type:Article
Title:Future changes in the stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone mass flux and the contribution from climate change and ozone recovery
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Meul, StefanieInst. für Meteorologie, Freie Univ. BerlinUNSPECIFIED
Langematz, UlrikeInst. für Meteorologie, Freie Univ. BerlinUNSPECIFIED
Kröger, PhilippInst. für Meteorologie, Freie Univ. BerlinUNSPECIFIED
Oberländer-Hayn, SophieInst. für Meteorologie, Freie Univ. BerlinUNSPECIFIED
Jöckel, PatrickDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-8964-1394
Date:1 June 2018
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:18
DOI :10.5194/acp-18-7721-2018
Page Range:pp. 7721-7738
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:MESSy, EMAC, stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange, ozone, climate change, ESCiMo, CCMI
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung, R - Project Climatic relevance of atmospheric tracer gases, aerosols and clouds
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Jöckel, Dr. Patrick
Deposited On:08 Jun 2018 14:11
Last Modified:02 May 2019 13:59

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