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Optimized DNI forecast using combinations of nowcasting methods from the DNICast project

Ramirez, Lourdes and Hanrieder, Natalie and Zarzalejo, L.F. and Landelius, T. and Müller, S.C. and Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marion and Wilbert, Stefan and Dubrana, Jean and Remund, Jan and Valenzuela, R.X. and Vindel, Jose Maria (2018) Optimized DNI forecast using combinations of nowcasting methods from the DNICast project. SolarPACES Conference, 26. - 29. Sept. 2017, Santiago de Chile.

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Official URL: https://aip.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.5067200

Abstract

Within European Commission’s FP7 DNICast project a nowcasting scheme based on Meteosat Second Generation cloud imagery and cloud movement tracking was further developed. It uses a sectoral approach and answers the question at which time any cloud structure will affect the power plant. It distinguishes between thin cirrus clouds and other clouds, which typically occur in different heights in the atmosphere and move in different directions. Also, their optical properties are very different - especially for the calculation of direct normal irradiance (DNI) as required by concentrating solar power plants. The method is also applied in ESA’s CSP-FoSyS project developing a nowcasting and forecasting system. This paper shortly discusses the method and provides a comparison against an optical flow method. This comparison distinguishes between various cloud types. The study also provides an example how jumpiness and percentiles are part of the nowcasting ‘message’ and how they can be used quantitiatively in a first approach.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/115537/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:Optimized DNI forecast using combinations of nowcasting methods from the DNICast project
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Ramirez, LourdesciematUNSPECIFIED
Hanrieder, Natalienatalie.hanrieder (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9671-351X
Zarzalejo, L.F.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Landelius, T.SMHIUNSPECIFIED
Müller, S.C.Meteotest BernUNSPECIFIED
Schroedter-Homscheidt, Marionmarion.schroedter-homscheidt (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1854-903X
Wilbert, StefanStefan.Wilbert (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3573-3004
Dubrana, JeanUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Remund, JanmeteotestUNSPECIFIED
Valenzuela, R.X.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Vindel, Jose MariaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:8 November 2018
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:DNICast, uncertainty,
Event Title:SolarPACES Conference
Event Location:Santiago de Chile
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:26. - 29. Sept. 2017
Organizer:SolarPACES
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Renewable Energies
HGF - Program Themes:Concentrating Solar Thermal Technology
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E SW - Solar and Wind Energy
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Impact of Desert Environment
Location: Köln-Porz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Solar Research > Qualification
Institute of Networked Energy Systems > Energy Systems Analysis
Deposited By: Kruschinski, Anja
Deposited On:20 Nov 2017 14:05
Last Modified:21 Nov 2019 15:51

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