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A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence

Knutti, Reto and Sedláček, Jan and Sanderson, Benjamin M. and Lorenz, Ruth and Fischer, Erich M. and Eyring, Veronika (2017) A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence. Geophysical Research Letters, pp. 1909-1918. Wiley. doi: 10.1002/2016GL072012. ISSN 0094-8276.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072012


Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/114948/
Document Type:Article
Title:A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Knutti, RetoETH, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Sedláček, JanETH, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Sanderson, Benjamin M.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Lorenz, RuthETH, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Fischer, Erich M.ETH, Zürich, SchweizUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Geophysical Research Letters
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 1909-1918
Keywords:CMIP6, weighting, climate projections
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Earth Observation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Atmospheric and climate research
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Eyring, PD Dr. habil. Veronika
Deposited On:02 Nov 2017 09:10
Last Modified:20 Jun 2021 15:49

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