Scenario analyses for the techno-economical evaluation of the market diffusion of future commercial vehicle concepts

Abstract

The article presents a bottom-up approach to model the German road haulage market of new light and heavy commercial vehicle registrations with different gross vehicle weights and competing powertrain technologies considering different transport tasks. It allows for the analysis under which market conditions alternative powertrain technologies can enter the market and gain market shares. It was developed to especially support strategic decisions of policy makers, e.g. regarding the implementation of a CO2 regulation framework for heavy commercial vehicles, and manufacturers, e.g. regarding the identification of future market potentials for alternative vehicle concepts, in order to face the challenge to reduce the emissions caused by road freight vehicles. Via a reference scenario, the new registrations of alternative powertrain technologies in the 2015 to 2040 timeframe is shown for the German road haulage market in total and separately for the light and heavy commercial vehicle market. The results display a retaining dominant market share of vehicle concepts using an internal combustion engine. However, due to the implementation and tightening of CO2 regulations advanced powertrain technologies are required in order to meet the targets set and thus faster entering the market.