Forecasting air passenger demand between settlements worldwide based on socio-economic scenarios

Abstract

The study presents an air passenger demand (APD) forecasting model which forecasts the future APD network between settlements worldwide and its corresponding passenger numbers based on socio-economic scenarios. The model contains two main parts: forecasting the potential for demand between settlement pairs and the expected APD based on new and existing connections. For the first part, the topology forecasting model is developed to determine whether the potential for demand between a given settlement pair exists or not. For the second part, the passenger forecasting model, derived from the potential for the APD existence between settlements, seeks to forecast the realized APD between these settlements.