On the Implementation of a European Space Traffic Management System - II. The Safety and Reliability Strategy

Abstract

This is the second (Paper II) in a mini series of three papers that summarise the final results from an evaluation study which DLR GfR and its partners conducted on behalf of ESA. The objective of this study was to generate a roadmap for the implementation of a European Space Traffic Management (STM) system within the next two decades under consideration of an evolving Air Traffic Management (ATM) system. In Paper I (Tüllmann et al. 2017a) we demonstrated that collision risks do not prevent suborbital space flights from the very beginning. We provided proof of concept that this kind of travel is generally possible, provided significant advances in heat and collision shielding technologies can be achieved. Potential technical, conceptual and organisational setups in response to Europe’s STM needs were discussed, focussing on technology and infrastructure development, Space Debris, Space Surveillance & Tracking, Space Weather Monitoring and ATM and STM integration. The initial roadmap was presented showing that the European STM system could become operational in the 2030 – 2035 time frame. Finally, the Top 10 STM-related issues were identified that need to be solved on EU and UN level. In Paper II, we now cover the relevant Safety & Reliability (S&R) aspects which should be reflected in a STM concept of operations. In this context relevant contributors to unsafe operations and hazardous events as well as the parties at risk are identified. Safety Management Systems in aviation business are investigated in order to check to what extent their S&R concepts and good-practices are applicable to STM operations. An initial Risk Classification Scheme for STM purposes is presented and has been applied to classify the Space Weather risks identified in Paper I. Initial values for the acceptable levels of safety for spaceplane occupants and for third parties at risk are presented and the hazards originating from re-entering objects and airspace sharing are discussed. Paper II finishes with the outline of the envisaged Space Navigation Service Provider (SNSP) certification process. This mini series of papers is concluded by Paper III (Tüllmann et al. 2017c) in which we provide initial system and S&R requirements, constraints and recommendations that should be considered for a European STM setup.