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Challenges in Applying Calibration Methods to Traffic Models

Wagner, Peter and Buisson, Christine and Nippold, Ronald (2016) Challenges in Applying Calibration Methods to Traffic Models. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2560, pp. 10-16. US National Research Council. DOI: 10.3141/2560-02 ISSN 0361-1981

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Official URL: http://trrjournalonline.trb.org/doi/abs/10.3141/2560-02

Abstract

This paper evaluates calibration and validation as a means to understand traffic flow models better. The paper concentrates on the car-following part of these models and demonstrates that the calibration of stochastic models under certain circumstances can become difficult. Three types of stochasticity are distinguished for microscopic traffic flow models: the stochasticity coming from noisy data, the stochasticity coming from the distribution of the parameters describing the driver’s behavior, and the stochasticity coming from the model itself when a noise component is added to a deterministic differential equation governing the vehicle’s movements. By using four submodels with four noise terms and an identical deterministic part, this paper shows that a calibration with synthetic and, therefore, reproducible data can lead to results that are awry. The parameters fitted by the calibration procedure were significantly different for the deterministic and stochastic models. It was concluded that stochasticity was the reason why the parameter estimation of stochastic models sometimes failed. Up to now, the authors have not been able to propose a solution to cope with this intrinsic pitfall of genuine stochastic models.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/110849/
Document Type:Article
Title:Challenges in Applying Calibration Methods to Traffic Models
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Wagner, PeterPeter.Wagner (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9097-8026
Buisson, Christinechristine.buisson (at) entpe.frUNSPECIFIED
Nippold, RonaldRonald.Nippold (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:November 2016
Journal or Publication Title:Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:2560
DOI :10.3141/2560-02
Page Range:pp. 10-16
Publisher:US National Research Council
ISSN:0361-1981
Status:Published
Keywords:Simulation; calibration; stochasticity
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Traffic Management (old)
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - I.MoVe (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transportation Systems > Verkehrssimulation und -prognose
Deposited By: Wagner, Dr. Peter
Deposited On:25 Jan 2017 09:56
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:08

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