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On the relation between bicycle volumes and individual risks for bicyclists in Berlin

Lücken, Leonhard and Wagner, Peter (2016) On the relation between bicycle volumes and individual risks for bicyclists in Berlin. In: Proceedings of the International Cycling Safety Conference 2016. 5th International Cycling Safety Conference, 3-4 November 2016, Bologna, Italien.

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Abstract

A notoriously difficult problem in traffic safety is the verification of the so-called "safety-in-numbers" (SiN) effect. This term refers to the observation that the individual risk R for a road user is inversely related to the absolute number X of road users of the corresponding type and suggests that a larger number of such road users is the reason for an increase of their individual safety. We propose a model to identify the causal relation between the correlated phenomena. It includes temporal information to verify which of the correlated phenomena precedes the other. We employ the model for an analysis of bicycle volumes and crashes between bicycles and motorized vehicles in Berlin, where different temporal and spatial aggregation levels are considered. Interestingly, we find a slight indication for a SiN-effect on an annual scale while more fine-grained temporal resolutions rather indicate the opposite effect of increasing risks due to higher volumes.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/110827/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Poster)
Title:On the relation between bicycle volumes and individual risks for bicyclists in Berlin
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Lücken, Leonhardleonhard.lücken (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6103-6531
Wagner, Peterpeter.wagner (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9097-8026
Date:3 November 2016
Journal or Publication Title:Proceedings of the International Cycling Safety Conference 2016
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:safety in numbers, delay model, causal relation, bicycle crashes, bicycle volume model, ratio variables
Event Title:5th International Cycling Safety Conference
Event Location:Bologna, Italien
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:3-4 November 2016
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Traffic Management (old)
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - I.MoVe (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transportation Systems > Verkehrssimulation und -prognose
Deposited By: Lücken, Dr.rer.nat Leonhard
Deposited On:25 Jan 2017 09:30
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:08

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