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On the relation between bicycle volumes and individual risks for bicyclists in Berlin

Lücken, Leonhard und Wagner, Peter (2016) On the relation between bicycle volumes and individual risks for bicyclists in Berlin. In: Proceedings of the International Cycling Safety Conference 2016. 5th International Cycling Safety Conference, 2016-11-03 - 2016-11-04, Bologna, Italien.

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Kurzfassung

A notoriously difficult problem in traffic safety is the verification of the so-called "safety-in-numbers" (SiN) effect. This term refers to the observation that the individual risk R for a road user is inversely related to the absolute number X of road users of the corresponding type and suggests that a larger number of such road users is the reason for an increase of their individual safety. We propose a model to identify the causal relation between the correlated phenomena. It includes temporal information to verify which of the correlated phenomena precedes the other. We employ the model for an analysis of bicycle volumes and crashes between bicycles and motorized vehicles in Berlin, where different temporal and spatial aggregation levels are considered. Interestingly, we find a slight indication for a SiN-effect on an annual scale while more fine-grained temporal resolutions rather indicate the opposite effect of increasing risks due to higher volumes.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/110827/
Dokumentart:Konferenzbeitrag (Poster)
Titel:On the relation between bicycle volumes and individual risks for bicyclists in Berlin
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Lücken, Leonhardleonhard.lücken (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-6103-6531NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Wagner, Peterpeter.wagner (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9097-8026NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:3 November 2016
Erschienen in:Proceedings of the International Cycling Safety Conference 2016
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Ja
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:safety in numbers, delay model, causal relation, bicycle crashes, bicycle volume model, ratio variables
Veranstaltungstitel:5th International Cycling Safety Conference
Veranstaltungsort:Bologna, Italien
Veranstaltungsart:internationale Konferenz
Veranstaltungsbeginn:3 November 2016
Veranstaltungsende:4 November 2016
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Verkehr
HGF - Programmthema:Verkehrsmanagement (alt)
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Verkehr
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:V VM - Verkehrsmanagement
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):V - I.MoVe (alt)
Standort: Berlin-Adlershof
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Verkehrssystemtechnik > Verkehrssimulation und -prognose
Hinterlegt von: Lücken, Dr.rer.nat Leonhard
Hinterlegt am:25 Jan 2017 09:30
Letzte Änderung:24 Apr 2024 20:15

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