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The global impact of the transport sector on atmospheric aerosol and climate in the Representative Concentration Pathways

Righi, Mattia and Hendricks, Johannes and Sausen, Robert (2015) The global impact of the transport sector on atmospheric aerosol and climate in the Representative Concentration Pathways. In: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt. 4th International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate, 22-25 Jun 2015, Bad Kohlgrub, Germany.

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Abstract

Using the EMAC global climate-chemistry model coupled to the aerosol module MADE, we simulate the impact of land transport, shipping and aviation emissions on global atmospheric aerosol and climate in 2030. Future emissions of short-lived gas and aerosol species follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) designed in support of the IPCC AR5. We compare the resulting 2030 transport-induced aerosol concentrations to the ones obtained for the year 2000 in a previous study with the same model configuration. The simulations suggest that black carbon (BC) and aerosol nitrate are the most relevant pollutants from land transport in 2000 and 2030 and their impacts are characterized by very strong regional variations during this time period. Europe and North America experience a decrease in the land-transport-induced particle pollution, although in these regions this sector remains a major source of surface-level pollution in 2030 under all RCPs. In Southeast Asia, however, a significant increase is simulated, but in this region the surface-level pollution is still controlled by other sources than land transport. Shipping-induced air pollution is mostly due to aerosol sulfate and nitrate, which show opposite trends towards 2030. Sulfate is strongly reduced as a consequence of sulfur reduction policies in ship fuels in force since 2010, while nitrate tends to increase due to the excess of ammonia following the reduction in ammonium sulfate. The continuous growth in air traffic in the future leads to increasing impacts in all scenarios, affecting BC and sulfate concentrations in the northern mid-latitudes at cruise level with some effects also close to the surface. The aerosol-induced climate impact of the transport sectors is dominated by aerosol-cloud effects and, with the exception of aviation, is projected to decrease between 2000 and 2030, nevertheless still contributing a significant radiative forcing to Earth’s radiation budget.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/108412/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:The global impact of the transport sector on atmospheric aerosol and climate in the Representative Concentration Pathways
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Righi, MattiaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Hendricks, JohannesDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Sausen, RobertDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:July 2015
Journal or Publication Title:Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Editors:
EditorsEmail
Sausen, Robertrobert.sausen@dlr.de
Unterstrasser, Simonsimon.unterstrasser@dlr.de
Blum, Anjaanja.blum@dlr.de
Publisher:Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt
Status:Published
Keywords:aerosol, land transport, shipping, aviation, future scenarios, global modelling
Event Title:4th International Conference on Transport, Atmosphere and Climate
Event Location:Bad Kohlgrub, Germany
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:22-25 Jun 2015
Organizer:DLR
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Righi, Dr. Mattia
Deposited On:28 Nov 2016 12:58
Last Modified:28 Nov 2016 12:58

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