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Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century

Zhang, Chunxi and Wang, Yuqing and Hamilton, Kevin and Lauer, Axel (2016) Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century. Journal of Climate, 29 (23), pp. 8333-8354. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1 ISSN 0894-8755

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Official URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1

Abstract

A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°–4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ~25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion–base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the frequency of days with clearly defined trade wind inversions is predicted to increase substantially (~83% to ~91%). The extreme rainfall events are projected to increase significantly. An analysis of the model’s moisture budget in the lower troposphere shows that the increased mean rainfall on the windward sides of the islands is largely attributable to increased boundary layer moisture in the warmer climate. Rainfall changes attributable to mean low-level circulation changes are modest in comparison.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/108347/
Document Type:Article
Title:Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Zhang, ChunxiUniv. of Hawaii, USAUNSPECIFIED
Wang, YuqingUniv. of Hawaii, USAUNSPECIFIED
Hamilton, KevinUniv. of Hawaii, USAUNSPECIFIED
Lauer, AxelDLR, IPAhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-9270-1044
Date:1 December 2016
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Climate
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:29
DOI :10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1
Page Range:pp. 8333-8354
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
ISSN:0894-8755
Status:Published
Keywords:Climate change; Climate prediction; Numerical analysis/modeling; Regional models
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Lauer, Axel
Deposited On:25 Nov 2016 15:14
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:05

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