Zhang, Chunxi und Wang, Yuqing und Hamilton, Kevin und Lauer, Axel (2016) Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century. Journal of Climate, 29 (23), Seiten 8333-8354. American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1. ISSN 0894-8755.
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Offizielle URL: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1
Kurzfassung
A 20-yr simulation with a fine-resolution regional atmospheric model for projected late twenty-first-century conditions in Hawaii is presented. The pseudo-global-warming method is employed, and the boundary conditions are based on a multimodel mean of projections made with global coupled models run with a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario. Results show that surface air temperature over land increases ~2°–4°C with the greatest warming at the highest topographic heights. A modest tendency for the warming to be larger on the leeward sides of the major islands is also apparent. Climatological rainfall is projected to change up to ~25% at many locations. The currently wet windward sides of the major islands will have more clouds and receive more rainfall, while the currently dry leeward sides will generally have even less clouds and rainfall. The average trade wind inversion–base height and the mean marine boundary layer cloud heights are projected to exhibit only small changes. However, the frequency of days with clearly defined trade wind inversions is predicted to increase substantially (~83% to ~91%). The extreme rainfall events are projected to increase significantly. An analysis of the model’s moisture budget in the lower troposphere shows that the increased mean rainfall on the windward sides of the islands is largely attributable to increased boundary layer moisture in the warmer climate. Rainfall changes attributable to mean low-level circulation changes are modest in comparison.
elib-URL des Eintrags: | https://elib.dlr.de/108347/ | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Dokumentart: | Zeitschriftenbeitrag | ||||||||||||||||||||
Titel: | Dynamical Downscaling of the Climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the Late Twenty-First Century | ||||||||||||||||||||
Autoren: |
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Datum: | 1 Dezember 2016 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Erschienen in: | Journal of Climate | ||||||||||||||||||||
Referierte Publikation: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
Open Access: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | Nein | ||||||||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Ja | ||||||||||||||||||||
Band: | 29 | ||||||||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0038.1 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Seitenbereich: | Seiten 8333-8354 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Verlag: | American Meteorological Society | ||||||||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 0894-8755 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Status: | veröffentlicht | ||||||||||||||||||||
Stichwörter: | Climate change; Climate prediction; Numerical analysis/modeling; Regional models | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Forschungsbereich: | Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programm: | Raumfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
HGF - Programmthema: | Erdbeobachtung | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Schwerpunkt: | Raumfahrt | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Forschungsgebiet: | R EO - Erdbeobachtung | ||||||||||||||||||||
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben): | R - Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung | ||||||||||||||||||||
Standort: | Oberpfaffenhofen | ||||||||||||||||||||
Institute & Einrichtungen: | Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre > Erdsystem-Modellierung | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt von: | Lauer, Axel | ||||||||||||||||||||
Hinterlegt am: | 25 Nov 2016 15:14 | ||||||||||||||||||||
Letzte Änderung: | 31 Jul 2019 20:05 |
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