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Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development

Ghosh, Robin and Schilling, Thomas and Wicke, Kai (2017) Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development. Journal of Air Transport Management, 58, pp. 58-67. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.09.007 ISSN 0969-6997 (In Press)

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0969699715300582

Abstract

This paper provides an overview of an inherently quantitative scenario philosophy for systems analysis and innovative concept design in the context of the Air Transportation System (ATS). A general perspective of the ATS is visualized in an “atomic model” with surrounding external scenario factors and the aircraft as the key connecting element between the main stakeholders: manufacturers, airlines, air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and airports. An iterative waterfall model is presented, which serves as a mental model of integration and decomposition over cascades of levels of detail from global scenario level to a single technology. The difference between classical scenario technique and a quantitative, yet participatory methodology of developing scenarios for the ATS is described. In order to integrate and decompose over a large span of levels of details, concept design and synthesis is as important as analysis. Further, quantitative scenario development may be considered as the synthesis of a skillful manipulation of a model deck. Scenario Gaming can be a method to simulate the settlement on requirements of complex socio-technological systems with multiple stakeholders and conflicting perspectives under radically changing boundary conditions. Scenario thinking can be an innovative and explorative instrument of participatory futurology, if not reduced to a mere “input for a tool chain”.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/106344/
Document Type:Article
Title:Theoretical framework of systems design for the air transportation system including an inherently quantitative philosophy of scenario development
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Ghosh, RobinRobin.Ghosh (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Schilling, ThomasThomas.Schilling (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Wicke, Kaikai.wicke (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:January 2017
Journal or Publication Title:Journal of Air Transport Management
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:58
DOI :10.1016/j.jairtraman.2016.09.007
Page Range:pp. 58-67
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0969-6997
Status:In Press
Keywords:Air transportation system; Systems analysis; Scenario development; Technology evaluation; Requirements derivation; Concept design
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment, L - Air Traffic Concepts and Operation, L - Concepts and Integration
Location: Hamburg
Institutes and Institutions:Air Transport Operations > System Analysis Air Transport
Deposited By: Ghosh, Robin
Deposited On:10 Oct 2016 13:46
Last Modified:10 Jan 2019 15:48

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