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The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

Silva, R.A. and West, J.J. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Shindell, D.T. and Collins, W.J. and Dalsoren, S.B. and Faluvegi, G. and Folberth, G.A. and Horowitz, L.W. and Nagashima, T. and Naik, V. and Rumbold, S.T. and Sudo, K. and Takemura, T. and Bergmann, D. and Cameron-Smith, P. and Cionni, I. and Doherty, R.M. and Eyring, Veronika and Josse, B. and MacKenzie, I.A. and Plummer, D.A. and Righi, Mattia and Stevenson, D.S. and Strode, S. and Szopa, C. and Zengast, G. (2016) The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 16, pp. 9847-9862. Copernicus Publications. DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016 ISSN 1680-7316

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Official URL: http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/9847/2016/

Abstract

Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000) deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to projected reductions in emissions, and are associated with avoided premature mortality, particularly in 2100: between −2.39 and −1.31 million deaths year−1 for the four RCPs. The global mortality burden of PM2.5 is estimated to decrease from 1.70 (1.30 to 2.10) million deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 0.95 and 1.55 million deaths year−1 in 2100 for the four RCPs due to the combined effect of decreases in PM2.5 concentrations and changes in population and baseline mortality rates. Trends in future air-pollution-related mortality vary regionally across scenarios, reflecting assumptions for economic growth and air pollution control specific to each RCP and region. Mortality estimates differ among chemistry–climate models due to differences in simulated pollutant concentrations, which is the greatest contributor to overall mortality uncertainty for most cases assessed here, supporting the use of model ensembles to characterize uncertainty. Increases in exposed population and baseline mortality rates of respiratory diseases magnify the impact on premature mortality of changes in future air pollutant concentrations and explain why the future global mortality burden of air pollution can exceed the current burden, even where air pollutant concentrations decrease.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/105857/
Document Type:Article
Title:The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Silva, R.A.Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North CarolinaUNSPECIFIED
West, J.J.Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North CarolinaUNSPECIFIED
Lamarque, J.-F.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Shindell, D.T.NASA-GISS/Columbia Univ., New York, NY, USAUNSPECIFIED
Collins, W.J.Met Office, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Dalsoren, S.B.CICERO, Oslo, NorwayUNSPECIFIED
Faluvegi, G.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York City, New York, USAUNSPECIFIED
Folberth, G.A.Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met Office, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Horowitz, L.W.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USAUNSPECIFIED
Nagashima, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, JUNSPECIFIED
Naik, V.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USAUNSPECIFIED
Rumbold, S.T.Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UKUNSPECIFIED
Sudo, K.Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Takemura, T.Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka, JUNSPECIFIED
Bergmann, D.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USAUNSPECIFIED
Cameron-Smith, P.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California, USAUNSPECIFIED
Cionni, I.ENEA, Bologna, ItalyUNSPECIFIED
Doherty, R.M.University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Josse, B.Météo-France, Toulouse, FUNSPECIFIED
MacKenzie, I.A.University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Righi, MattiaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Stevenson, D.S.Univ. of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKUNSPECIFIED
Strode, S.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USAUNSPECIFIED
Szopa, C.Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE-CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceUNSPECIFIED
Zengast, G.National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New ZealandUNSPECIFIED
Date:5 August 2016
Journal or Publication Title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:16
DOI :10.5194/acp-16-9847-2016
Page Range:pp. 9847-9862
Publisher:Copernicus Publications
ISSN:1680-7316
Status:Published
Keywords:Air Quality, mortality, particulate matter, ozone, modelling studies
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Projekt ESMVal (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Righi, Dr. Mattia
Deposited On:06 Sep 2016 09:18
Last Modified:02 May 2019 14:05

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