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Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure

Meul, Stefanie and Dameris, Martin and Langematz, Ulrike and Abalichin, Janna and Kerschbaumer, Andreas and Kubin, Anne and Oberländer-Hayn, Sophie (2016) Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, pp. 1-9. Wiley. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL067997 ISSN 0094-8276

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Abstract

Future projections of tropical total column ozone (TCO) are challenging, as its evolution is affected not only by the expected decline of ozone depleting substances but also by the uncertain increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To assess the range of tropical TCO projections, we analyze simulations with a chemistry-climate model forced by three different GHG scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5). We find that tropical TCO will be lower by the end of the 21st century compared to the 1960s in all scenarios with the largest decrease in the medium RCP6.0 scenario. Uncertainties of the projected TCO changes arise from the magnitude of stratospheric column decrease and tropospheric ozone increase which both strongly vary between the scenarios. In the three scenario simulations the stratospheric column decrease is not compensated by the increase in tropospheric ozone. The concomitant increase in harmful ultraviolet irradiance reaches up to 15% in specific regions in the RCP6.0 scenario.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/103896/
Document Type:Article
Title:Impact of rising greenhouse gas concentrations on future tropical ozone and UV exposure
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Meul, StefanieFUB MeteorologieUNSPECIFIED
Dameris, MartinDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Langematz, UlrikeFUB MeteorologieUNSPECIFIED
Abalichin, JannaFUB MeteorologieUNSPECIFIED
Kerschbaumer, AndreasFUB MeteorologieUNSPECIFIED
Kubin, AnneFUB MeteorologieUNSPECIFIED
Oberländer-Hayn, SophieFUB MeteorologieUNSPECIFIED
Date:March 2016
Journal or Publication Title:Geophysical Research Letters
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:43
DOI :10.1002/2016GL067997
Page Range:pp. 1-9
Publisher:Wiley
ISSN:0094-8276
Status:Published
Keywords:chemistry-climate modelling
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Atmosphären- und Klimaforschung
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Dameris, Prof. Dr. rer. nat. Martin
Deposited On:13 Apr 2016 12:04
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:01

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