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Rising Variability in Thunderstorm-Related U.S. Losses as a Reflection of Changes in Large-Scale Thunderstorm Forcing

Sander, Julia and Eichner, J. F. and Faust, Eberhard and Steuer, M. (2013) Rising Variability in Thunderstorm-Related U.S. Losses as a Reflection of Changes in Large-Scale Thunderstorm Forcing. Weather, Climate, and Society, 5 (4), pp. 317-331. American Meteorological Society. doi: 10.1175/WCAS-D-12-00023.1. ISSN 1948-8327.

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Thunderstorm-related normalized economic and insured losses in the United States east of the Rockies from the period 1970–2009 (March–September) exhibit higher peaks and greater variability in the last two decades than in the preceding two decades. To remove the bias from increasingly detected losses over time due to newly built-up locations, only large events that incurred normalized losses of at least $250 million (U.S. dollars) economically ($150 million insured) were selected. These are multistate damage events that are unlikely to have been missed at any time within the analysis period, thus providing for homogeneity of the events covered. Those losses, if aggregated, account for the major proportion (~80%) of all thunderstorm-related losses in the period 1970–2009. This study demonstrates that the pattern of variability in the time series of these losses can be seen as a reflection (‘‘fingerprint’’) of the temporal variability in severe thunderstorm forcing. The meteorological information on forcing is inferred from NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data. No final attribution of the climatic variability identified in thunderstorm forcing and losses—either to natural climate variability or to anthropogenic climate change—can be conclusively arrived at in this study because of the chosen methodology. Nevertheless, the expected impacts of anthropogenic climate change on the forcing of convective storms appear consistent with these findings.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/103565/
Document Type:Article
Title:Rising Variability in Thunderstorm-Related U.S. Losses as a Reflection of Changes in Large-Scale Thunderstorm Forcing
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Sander, JuliaDLR, IPA & Munich ReUNSPECIFIED
Eichner, J. F.Munich ReUNSPECIFIED
Faust, EberhardMunich ReUNSPECIFIED
Steuer, M.Munich ReUNSPECIFIED
Journal or Publication Title:Weather, Climate, and Society
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 317-331
Publisher:American Meteorological Society
Keywords:thunderstorms, variability, damage, losses
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Ponater, Dr.rer.nat. Michael
Deposited On:22 Mar 2016 18:49
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 20:00

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