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Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes?

Dahlmann, Katrin and Grewe, Volker and Frömming, Christine and Burkhardt, Ulrike (2016) Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment. Elsevier. ISSN 1361-9209

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Abstract

Air traffic has an increasing influence on climate; therefore identifying mitigation options to reduce the climate impact of aviation becomes more and more important. Aviation influences climate through several climate agents, which show different dependencies on the magnitude and location of emission and the spatial and temporal impacts. Even counteracting effects can occur. Therefore, it is important to analyse all effects with high accuracy to identify mitigation potentials. However, the uncertainties in calculating the climate impact of aviation are partly large (up to a factor of about 2). In this study, we present a methodology, based on a Monte Carlo simulation of an updated non-linear climate-chemistry response model AirClim, to integrate above mentioned uncertainties in the climate assessment of mitigation options. Since mitigation options often represent small changes in emissions, we concentrate on a more generalised approach and use exemplarily different normalised global air traffic inventories to test the methodology. These inventories are identical in total emissions but differ in the spatial emission distribution. We show that using the Monte Carlo simulation and analysing relative differences between scenarios lead to a reliable assessment of mitigation potentials. In a use case we show that the presented methodology can be used to analyse even small differences between scenarios with mean flight altitude variations.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/103286/
Document Type:Article
Title:Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes?
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Dahlmann, KatrinDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Grewe, VolkerDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Frömming, ChristineDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Burkhardt, UlrikeDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Date:July 2016
Journal or Publication Title:Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:1361-9209
Status:Published
Keywords:Monte-Carlo Simulation, Unsicherheiten, Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling
Deposited By: Dahlmann, Katrin
Deposited On:11 Apr 2016 11:23
Last Modified:06 Sep 2019 15:30

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