Dahlmann, Katrin and Grewe, Volker and Frömming, Christine and Burkhardt, Ulrike (2016) Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes? Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 46, pp. 40-55. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.trd.2016.03.006. ISSN 1361-9209.
![]() |
PDF
- Only accessible within DLR
- Postprint version (accepted manuscript)
3MB |
Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2016.03.006
Abstract
Air traffic has an increasing influence on climate; therefore identifying mitigation options to reduce the climate impact of aviation becomes more and more important. Aviation influences climate through several climate agents, which show different dependencies on the magnitude and location of emission and the spatial and temporal impacts. Even counteracting effects can occur. Therefore, it is important to analyse all effects with high accuracy to identify mitigation potentials. However, the uncertainties in calculating the climate impact of aviation are partly large (up to a factor of about 2). In this study, we present a methodology, based on a Monte Carlo simulation of an updated non-linear climate-chemistry response model AirClim, to integrate above mentioned uncertainties in the climate assessment of mitigation options. Since mitigation options often represent small changes in emissions, we concentrate on a more generalised approach and use exemplarily different normalised global air traffic inventories to test the methodology. These inventories are identical in total emissions but differ in the spatial emission distribution. We show that using the Monte Carlo simulation and analysing relative differences between scenarios lead to a reliable assessment of mitigation potentials. In a use case we show that the presented methodology can be used to analyse even small differences between scenarios with mean flight altitude variations.
Item URL in elib: | https://elib.dlr.de/103286/ | |||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Document Type: | Article | |||||||||||||||
Title: | Can we reliably assess climate mitigation options for air traffic scenarios despite large uncertainties in atmospheric processes? | |||||||||||||||
Authors: |
| |||||||||||||||
Date: | July 2016 | |||||||||||||||
Journal or Publication Title: | Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment | |||||||||||||||
Refereed publication: | Yes | |||||||||||||||
Open Access: | No | |||||||||||||||
Gold Open Access: | No | |||||||||||||||
In SCOPUS: | Yes | |||||||||||||||
In ISI Web of Science: | Yes | |||||||||||||||
Volume: | 46 | |||||||||||||||
DOI: | 10.1016/j.trd.2016.03.006 | |||||||||||||||
Page Range: | pp. 40-55 | |||||||||||||||
Publisher: | Elsevier | |||||||||||||||
ISSN: | 1361-9209 | |||||||||||||||
Status: | Published | |||||||||||||||
Keywords: | Monte-Carlo Simulation, Unsicherheiten, Klimawirkung des Luftverkehrs | |||||||||||||||
HGF - Research field: | Aeronautics, Space and Transport | |||||||||||||||
HGF - Program: | Aeronautics | |||||||||||||||
HGF - Program Themes: | air traffic management and operations | |||||||||||||||
DLR - Research area: | Aeronautics | |||||||||||||||
DLR - Program: | L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation | |||||||||||||||
DLR - Research theme (Project): | L - Climate, Weather and Environment (old) | |||||||||||||||
Location: | Oberpfaffenhofen | |||||||||||||||
Institutes and Institutions: | Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Earth System Modelling | |||||||||||||||
Deposited By: | Dahlmann, Katrin | |||||||||||||||
Deposited On: | 11 Apr 2016 11:23 | |||||||||||||||
Last Modified: | 26 May 2020 17:29 |
Repository Staff Only: item control page