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Nonlinear Dynamics Approach for modeling of air traffic disruption and recovery

Fürstenau, Norbert and Mittendorf, Monika and Kamo, Shumpei (2016) Nonlinear Dynamics Approach for modeling of air traffic disruption and recovery. In: 7th Intern. Conf. on Research in AIr Transportation (2016). Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA. 7th Int. Conf. on Research in Air Transportation, 20.-24.6.2016, Philadelphia, USA.

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Official URL: http://www.icrat.org

Abstract

The inclusion of a priori knowledge on random disturbance into stochastic and robust optimisation of arrival and departure scheduling for controller assistance is a topic of ongoing research. One direction is the development of advanced algorithms utilizing stochastic models of empirical traffic rate and delay time statistics derived from hundreds of flights over limited periods of time. The typically asymmetric delay distributions usually include some extreme disturbances (X-events, e.g. low pressure weather situations) which often are disregarded as outliers. In this contribution we focus on the modeling of disruption and recovery dynamics of performance during single X-events. Based on previous work in the literature for formalizing performance disruption and systems resilience we analyse the potential of a simple logistic function aproach for deriving characteristic performance parameters from empirical data. We provide initial results obtained with time dependent control parameters (e.g. disruption / recovery time constants) dependent, e.g. on wind/gust speed variation, for dynamic performance simulation using nonlinear first and second order dynamics. This stationary state transition model is analogous to the incoherent – coherent phase transition in the laser and due to its predictability features has the potential for combining single X-events models with stochastic and robust optimization based scheduling.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/103032/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Nonlinear Dynamics Approach for modeling of air traffic disruption and recovery
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Fürstenau, Norbertnorbert.fuerstenau (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Mittendorf, Monikamonika.mittendorf (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kamo, ShumpeiThe Univ. of Tokyo, Graduate School of Eng., Dptm. of Aeronautics & AstronauticsUNSPECIFIED
Date:2016
Journal or Publication Title:7th Intern. Conf. on Research in AIr Transportation (2016)
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Editors:
EditorsEmail
Neiderman, EricFAA
Bourgois, MarcEurocontrol
Publisher:Drexel University, Philadelphia, USA
Series Name:ICRAT Proceedings
Status:Published
Keywords:Performance, extreme Events, disruption, recovery, logistic model, nonlinear dynamics
Event Title:7th Int. Conf. on Research in Air Transportation
Event Location:Philadelphia, USA
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:20.-24.6.2016
Organizer:FAA und Eurocontrol
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Efficient Flight Guidance
Location: Braunschweig
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Flight Control
Deposited By: Fürstenau, Dr.phil.nat. Norbert
Deposited On:18 Mar 2016 17:24
Last Modified:04 Nov 2016 15:51

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