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Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: A theoretical Concept to integrate Quality of Travel, Cost of Travel and Capacity Constraints

Ghosh, Robin and Kölker, Katrin and Terekhov, Ivan (2015) Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: A theoretical Concept to integrate Quality of Travel, Cost of Travel and Capacity Constraints. 19th World Conference of the Air Transport Research Society (ATRS, 2.-4. Jul. 2015, Singapur.

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Abstract

In order to model possible future evolutions of the global air transportation system (ATS), not only the assumptions on external socio-economic conditions are relevant to estimate the future realized air passenger demand on city pair level. The internal scenario concerning the air transportation system (ATS), i.e. how the ATS is changing over time with the introduction of new technologies or new operational concepts has a non-neglectable feedback on realized demand. Also, the effect of infrastructural changes concerning airport and airspace capacities have to be considered. That means, the forecast of realized demand and thus realized air traffic depends equally on the supply offered by the air transportation system. There are three essential kinds of feedback on realized air passenger demand and air traffic, the supply provided by the ATS may have. We present a theoretical concept to integrate these three kinds of feedback (1) quality of travel, (2) cost of travel, and (3) constraints of the supply side of the air transportation system on modelling global future scheduled air traffic. The 4-layers approach of modelling future evolutions of the ATS is a basic prerequisite to model these feedbacks, especially the consistent derivation of an aircraft movements network with information on aircraft generations.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/100392/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Future Passenger Air Traffic Modelling: A theoretical Concept to integrate Quality of Travel, Cost of Travel and Capacity Constraints
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Ghosh, RobinRobin.Ghosh (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Kölker, Katrinkatrin.koelker (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Terekhov, IvanIvan.Terekhov (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:2015
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:scenarios, forecasting, air traffic modelling, quality of travel, cost of travel, aviation networks, AIRCAST
Event Title:19th World Conference of the Air Transport Research Society (ATRS
Event Location:Singapur
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:2.-4. Jul. 2015
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment
Location: Hamburg
Institutes and Institutions:Air Transport Operations > System Analysis Air Transport
Deposited By: Ghosh, Robin
Deposited On:27 Jan 2016 14:30
Last Modified:31 Jul 2019 19:57

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