Exploration of the impact of electric vehicle policies on vehicle registrations, emissions and cost-benefit-analysis

Abstract

In this presentation, feasible deployment paths of electrified vehicles (EV) were analysed up to 2030. Different scenario storylines were developed following research questions on the timing and dimension of EV market penetration under current policies (BaU scenario) and on the influence of additional national and EU-wide policies (PoD). One of the main drivers is the EU regulation on CO2 targets for passenger cars. A tightening to 75 g CO2/km in 2030 as assumed in the BaU scenario results in a significant market penetration of EV in Germany and in EU28. In combination with increasing efficiencies of conventional powertrains, this leads to a reduction in energy consumption and well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of the passenger car stock in Germany and EU28 of around a third (2030 vs. 2010). A further tightening to 60 g CO2/km in 2030 as assumed in the EU28 PoD-EU scenario results in a slightly faster and more pronounced market penetration of EV in EU28. WTW CO2 emissions and energy consumption of the EU28 passenger car stock are slightly reduced (< 5% in 2030 compared to the BaU scenario). The calculation of benefit-cost-ratio in PoD-EU scenario shows that stronger limitations are not efficient. Costs exceed benefits, thus benefit-cost ration is less than 1. In Germany, under the taxation system as of today and in combination with relatively high electricity prices, customers are not yet truly encouraged to purchase EV. In the new vehicle market under the BaU scenario, electrified powertrains reach market shares of around 65% in 2030, with two thirds being G-HEV and D-HEV. The share of BEV stays low. In stock, the share of electrified powertrains is around 35% in 2030 (1/3 of which are PHEV, REEV and BEV). Together with increased efficiencies of conventional powertrains and increasing shares of renewables in electricity production, total energy consumption and well-to-wheel CO2 emissions of the German passenger car fleet are decreasing by around 30% in 2030 compared to 2010. The German cost-benefit-analysis shows that there is a way to reach the German governmental goal of 1 million EVs in 2020 by balanced costs and benefits. Furthermore there will be economical advantages in PoD-GER scenario by having positive effects on employment and value added. On the other hand – given financial incentives lead to fiscal losses. Political decision makers have to weigh up wether those fiscal losses are feasible.