Exploration of the Impact of Electric Vehicle Policies on Vehicle Registration, Emissions and Cost-Benefit-Analysis

Kurzfassung

The member states of the European Union (EU) have agreed to path a way towards a towards a fossil fuel free future in the transport sector in order to reduce carbon emissions (EC 2011). In order to fulfil its national obligations within these supranational ambitions, the German government identified a mitigation potential of approx. 7-10 million tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) within its Climate Action Programme 2020 (BMUB 2014). One key component of the GHG mitigation strategies is the promotion of electric vehicles in passenger transport. For that reason, the support of research on the technological development and mechanisms to foster the market introduction of electric vehicles has been intensified in all member states. First of all, the applied methodology for the scenario calculation of market penetration pathways and their socio-economic impact estimation for the deployment of electric passenger vehicles are described. The framework and calculation prerequisites as well as the results are presented for EU28 and for the focus country Germany. After the elaboration of the scenario settings, which covers parameters such as energy prices, well-to-tank emissions as well as emission cost factors to monetarize them, two different scenario alternatives (Business-as-Usual, Policy-Driven) are analysed. The development of the market shares of different propulsion technologies for total sales of new passenger cars as well as the total passenger car stock are displayed. Furthermore, corresponding socio-economic (e.g. emission costs, cost of owning and operating) impacts for the specific regional focus and the alternative scenarios are discussed.