The impact of various meteorological years on system reliability in a German energy scenario for 2025

Kurzfassung

System reliability describes the ability of an energy system to meet its demand at any time. In this thesis, a German energy scenario for 2025 with large shares of fluctuating renewable energy sources, in particular wind and photovoltaic, is analyzed regarding the influence of historical meteorological input data on system reliability. Using the loss of load expectation approach (LOLE) for a German energy scenario an assessment of the influence of various meteorological years on system reliability is carried out. The results indicate a significant impact of the used meteorological year on the LOLE. Furthermore the interdependency of curtailment and load balancing on system reliability is investigated. Therefore a LOLE for a German energy scenario for 2025 considering curtailment and flexibility options is calculated using the energy system model REMix. The outcome reveals a large influence of load balancing on system reliability. The loss of load expectation is reduced to almost zero.