Automated Driving: How It Could Enter Our Cities and How This Might Affect Our Mobility Decisions

Kurzfassung

The recent attention given to automated vehicles suggests that self-driving vehicles or driverless cars are about to become reality in the near, if not very near, future. While technologically this impression may well be justified, the emerging discussion discovers other related aspects that needs to be addressed alongside the technological challenges. Examples are legal and ethical aspects (Gasser et al. 2012; Beiker et al. 2012), user acceptance (Fraedrich, Lenz 2014) or the implications on the transport system that might result from the largescale uptake of self-driving vehicles (Zachariah et al. 2013; Spieser et al. 2014; Fagnant, Kockelman 2014). Somewhat less interest has been attached to the possible implications of this new ‘transport tool’ for people’s mobility decisions. In this article, we focus on the possible implications of automated vehicles for the mobility choices of people, in terms of both their everyday mobility, specifically the choice of transport mode, as well as their longer term residential location decisions. The question is: which influence can we expect from automated vehicles on the choices we make for everyday mobility and also longer term residential location? This interest arises from the specific properties of automated vehicles. In particular, the potential benefit of spending time in the vehicle with activities other than driving may lead to significant changes in how we make use of time while traveling and its resultant valuation (Continental 2013; Solokow 2013; Silberg et al. 2013; Silberg et al. 2012; Munsch 2014; Cyganski et al. 2015). As a result, people might reconsider their choice of transport mode, number of trips and distance of travel. What is more, changes in the value of travel time may influence the choice of residential location. The idea, for example, that time in a vehicle does not have to be spent on driving-related tasks, but instead permits other activities, may provoke a complete reappraisal of the time factor (Silberg et al. 2012). This could then lead to users considering different (further away) destinations for their daily journeys, or even changing their choice of home location, as the long commutes would then be seen more favorably. If we take these connected factors to their logical conclusion, in the end it would bepossible to dissolve the time factor as a limiting variable of urban planning. However, such changes can be expected not only as a result of individual choices but also the type of automated mobility concepts. The use of a vehicle on demand as an alternative to privately-owned cars might lead to an increase in multimodal behavior, or contribute to an increase in carpooling. The use of a fully automated private car might instead increase car use and mileage covered given that time spent in the vehicle is often viewed positively. As these examples show, there is a great need to specify and clarify what kind of automated vehicle or rather automation scenario is under consideration. To acknowledge these considerations, the article starts with an outline of current scenarios for the deployment of automated vehicles in urban areas (section 2). It moves on to discuss the possible implications of these scenarios on mode choice (section 3), followed by considerations of the effects on longer term residential location choices (section 4). The methodological basis of the discussion is a stated preference experiment and a systematic review of existing scenarios (for more information see Cyganski 2015 and Heinrichs 2015). It draws on the work by the authors in the recent Villa Ladenburg project of the Daimler and Benz Foundation, in which an interdisciplinary team explored a wide range of challenges and frame conditions associated with automated driving (see Maurer et al. 2015). The article concludes with some observations concerning the findings including the levels of uncertainty.