Scenario report with an in-depth description of the scenarios’ background

Abstract

Three deployment paths for electrified vehicles were analysed with the agent based vehicle market model VECTOR21 within the eMAP project: Business as Usual (BaU) as a reference up to 2030, Technology Driven (TeD) with higher efficiencies of electrified vehicles and Policy Driven (PoD and PoD-EU) with a stricter EU-wide CO2 regulation for passenger cars respectively and a more pronounced promotion of electrified vehicles, the latter with individual measures per country. VECTOR21 is simulating the competition between conventional and alternative powertrains for the new vehicle market, taking into account customer needs, automotive innovations and policy settings. 900 types of customers are modelled using relevant costs of ownership as a basis for their purchase decision, taking into account the political framework for CO2 emission targets. Scenario results give the number of new vehicles sold per segment, powertrain, year and market. Vehicle stock in the individual markets is modelled including energy consumption and well-to-wheel CO2 emission reductions in the stock over time. Within eMAP, an extended version of VECTOR21 was developed to cover Finland, France, the United Kingdom, Italy and Poland in addition to Germany, now representing three quarters of the EU28 new passenger car market and thus enabling statements on EU28 as a whole. In the EU28 BaU scenario in 2030, computations result in 9% externally chargeable electric cars in stock. In combination with an increasing efficiency of conventional powertrains, the overall well-to-wheel CO2 emission reduction equals 29% compared to 2010. In the TeD scenario, the take-up of electric vehicles is accelerated already around 2020, resulting in an earlier market entry and 13% electric cars with a charging device in stock in 2030. The PoD scenario in turn suggests a consistent market growth in the share of electric drives as more and more stringent emission regulations come into effect, and a share of 11% externally chargeable electric cars in stock is seen by 2030. All scenario results showed that CO2 emission limits (EC 443/2009) for passenger cars are an important steering measure to oblige manufacturers to supply vehicle markets with cleaner vehicle technologies.