Assessment of efficiency-improving technologies for passenger vehicles in the international context

Abstract

Worldwide CO2 emission regulations impose a pressure to develop innovative fuel efficient powertrains for passenger cars. The production of passenger cars is expected to grow, whereas growth prospects for electrified powertrains remain uncertain. Meanwhile manufacturers seek to maximize the utilization of their production capacities for electric and conventional efficiency-improving technologies. Thus, a competition for production capacities between fuel-saving technologies arises. Technology assessment has a major influence on the stakeholders´ decision making process on which technology to produce and where to deploy it. The commonly used greenhouse gas abatement cost curve (ACC) provides a methodology to evaluate the cost-benefit potential of new technologies. It allows a ranking of all efficiency-improving technologies according to their cost abatement ratio. However, this approach neglects various other requirements in the decision making. These requirements can be numerous and vary across markets. This article aims at improving the ACC methodology in the context of the deployment of fuel-saving technologies on international markets. A multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) model is constructed that combines the abatement cost potential with the consideration of market-specific criteria. As a preceding result, fuel-saving technologies are derived from a meta-analysis. Applied in the MADM model, the results show that market-specific criteria can be reflected in the assessment of a technology portfolio.