Cost-Efficiency Analysis of a Satellite Based Train Control System in Germany: Project Results of the 3InSat Business Case for the German Scenario

Abstract

The DB Netz AG is aiming for cost-effective, safe and reliable alternatives to conventional train control and management systems on low density lines in Germany. For this purpose, the 3InSat system seems promising because this demonstration project will develop, test and validate a new satellite-based platform in a real set-up. The system will meet the SIL4 safety requirements and will be compatible with the ERTMS standard. In order to provide a basis for a decision about DB Netz AG’s further involvement in the pursuit of this technology, a comparison of costs between 3InSat and relevant alternatives is carried out by DB and DLR. With low density lines in focus, those alternative systems are ERTMS-Regional, ETCS Level 2 without signals, as well as a conventional signalling system (so called Ks-System). To ensure the applicability in DB Netz AG’s network, generic line standards according to DB regulations are used to shape seven representative lines. For the different lines the Net Present Value of equipment costs for each alternative is calculated and compared. From the results as such a significant cost-efficiency of the 3InSat system cannot be determined yet with reasonable certainty. This is mainly due to many uncertainties of some cost factors. Especially for the highly innovative 3InSat system a number of assumptions had to be made for the costs of elements like the track database, which are not technically defined yet. However, from a sensitivity analysis and a comparison of infrastructure and train equipment costs, it can be told that there is a high potential for 3InSat to provide a cost-efficient alternative for equipping low density lines in Germany.