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Anticipation in dynamic systems

Otte, K. und Hörmann, H.-J. (2014) Anticipation in dynamic systems. Pabst Science Publishers, Lengerich. ISBN 978-3-89967-993-9. ISSN 2190-0493.

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Kurzfassung

Observations in simulator studies at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) during testing of future technologies in air traffic management systems led to the hypothesis that future pilots will be required more often to think anticipative, for improving capacities in airspaces with high air traffic density. A computer-based test DAT (Dynamic Anticipatory Test) was developed and tested for extracting the assumed latent construct anticipatory thinking. The item format resembles a CDTI-like (Cockpit Display of Traffic Information) display developed during earlier studies at NASA-Ames Research Center. The participant’s task was to anticipate the movements of discrete objects (aircrafts) on the screen. We used four parameters type (straight or curve) and length of movement (3 or 5 cm), number of aircrafts (1, 2 or 3) and anticipation time (1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 seconds) resulting in a 2x2x3x5 design with 60 test items. A person’s score was calculated as the sum of the Euclidian distances between the predicted and the correct position of an aircraft. The study was conducted at the DLR with 73 trained pilots (3 female, mean age 29.85 years) with multiple hours of flying experience applying for a ready-entry position in an airline and 113 pilot applicants (39 female, mean age 19.26 years) mainly without flying experience applying for pilot apprenticeship. For testing if anticipatory thinking was already covered by existing aptitude tests and if the test could predict overall applicant’s success, scores were compared using correlations, regressions and t-tests. Results showed the DAT was suited to measure corresponding skill differences between applicants regarding anticipatory thinking. Split-Half reliability was very good with r = 0.94. Several significant correlations with existing DLR aptitude tests were computed (memory: 0.19 ≤ r ≤ 0.23; visual processing speed: r = 0.18; motor skills: r = 0.23). A significant difference between successful and unsuccessful applicants was found. In sum, the DAT showed promising results and further development should be pursued.

elib-URL des Eintrags:https://elib.dlr.de/94732/
Dokumentart:Tagungsband
Titel:Anticipation in dynamic systems
Autoren:
AutorenInstitution oder E-Mail-AdresseAutoren-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Otte, K.Christian Albrecht Universität KielNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Hörmann, H.-J.hans.hoermann (at) dlr.dehttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-6358-7027NICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Datum:2014
Referierte Publikation:Ja
Open Access:Nein
Gold Open Access:Nein
In SCOPUS:Nein
In ISI Web of Science:Nein
Seitenbereich:Seiten 639-640
Herausgeber:
HerausgeberInstitution und/oder E-Mail-Adresse der HerausgeberHerausgeber-ORCID-iDORCID Put Code
Güntürkün, OnurRuhr-Universität BochumNICHT SPEZIFIZIERTNICHT SPEZIFIZIERT
Verlag:Pabst Science Publishers, Lengerich
ISSN:2190-0493
ISBN:978-3-89967-993-9
Status:veröffentlicht
Stichwörter:anticipation, CDTI, pilots
HGF - Forschungsbereich:Luftfahrt, Raumfahrt und Verkehr
HGF - Programm:Luftfahrt
HGF - Programmthema:Luftverkehrsmanagement und Flugbetrieb
DLR - Schwerpunkt:Luftfahrt
DLR - Forschungsgebiet:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Teilgebiet (Projekt, Vorhaben):L - Faktor Mensch und Sicherheit in der Luftfahrt (alt)
Standort: Hamburg
Institute & Einrichtungen:Institut für Luft- und Raumfahrtmedizin > Luft- und Raumfahrtpsychologie
Hinterlegt von: Hörmann, Dr.phil. Hans-Jürgen
Hinterlegt am:29 Jan 2015 11:38
Letzte Änderung:24 Apr 2024 20:00

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