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Automobility in Brazil, Russia, India, and China: Quo Vadis?

Kuhnimhof, Tobias and Rohr, Charlene and Ecola, Liisa and Zmud, Johanna (2014) Automobility in Brazil, Russia, India, and China: Quo Vadis? 93rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, 12.-16. Jan. 2014, Washington, USA.

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Abstract

This paper introduces an innovative methodology to answer the question: Toward which 2 levels of automobility are the BRIC countries headed? We apply this methodology to understand 3 why long-term saturation levels for car travel differ across the OECD study countries and what 4 this means for the saturation levels that the BRIC countries may attain. In our approach we factor 5 out the GDP development in order to focus on how other factors have influenced specific paths 6 of automobility in individual countries. That is, we focus on the question: Why are the long-term 7 automobility saturation levels so much higher for some countries than for others, even at similar 8 levels of GDP? Our methodology draws on quantitative analysis of historic developments in four 9 industrialized countries (USA, Australia, Germany, and Japan) that serve as case studies 10 representing prototypical paths of automobility with very different levels of per capita automo-11 bility, in combination with qualitative data derived from an expert-based qualitative approach. 12 We use the latter to transfer historic experiences about how automobility evolution was shaped in 13 industrialized countries and how these experiences may affect the future of automobility in the 14 BRIC countries. Based on our analysis, Brazil turns out to be the most car-oriented country 15 among the BRICs with a potential long-term level of automobility between Germany and Aus-16 tralia. Russia comes in second, also with a likely long-term level of automobility above that of 17 Germany. China and India, on the contrary, are heading towards lower levels of automobility 18 below Germany but higher than Japan.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/94428/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Automobility in Brazil, Russia, India, and China: Quo Vadis?
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Kuhnimhof, Tobiastobias.kuhnimhof (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Rohr, Charlenecrohr (at) rand.orgUNSPECIFIED
Ecola, Liisalecola (at) rand.orgUNSPECIFIED
Zmud, Johannajzmud (at) rand.orgUNSPECIFIED
Date:January 2014
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Car Ownership. Peak Car, Emerging Economies
Event Title:93rd Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board
Event Location:Washington, USA
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:12.-16. Jan. 2014
Organizer:Transportation Research Board
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research
Deposited By: Kuhnimhof, Tobias
Deposited On:09 Jan 2015 11:34
Last Modified:09 Jan 2015 11:34

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