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Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction

Körner, Stephan and Holzäpfel, Frank (2014) Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction. 4th EASN Workshop, Flight Physics & Aircraft Design, 27.-29. Oktober 2014, RWTH Aachen.

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Wake vortices generated by aircraft as a consequence of lift constitute a potential danger to following aircraft. Real-time predictions of wake vortex behavior can contribute to avoiding dangerous situations posed by vortices hovering in the glide path, drifting to parallel runways or living longer than expected. Employing wake vortex models developed by DLR (D2P) and NASA (APA 3.2, APA 3.4, TDAWP 2.1) the capability of ensemble approaches to outperform individual wake vortex predictions is evaluated. In particular a Multi-Model Ensemble approach, called Reliability Ensemble Averaging, is examined which uses individual model weights that depend on the prediction quality of each model. Field measurement data collected during campaigns at the airports of Munich, Frankfurt and special airport Oberpfaffenhofen serve to train and to evaluate the ensemble predictions. It is shown that a well balanced Multi-Model Ensemble may outperform individual model predictions.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/93172/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:wake vortex, hybrid RANS/LES, plate line, field experiment, WakeOP, HALO
Event Title:4th EASN Workshop, Flight Physics & Aircraft Design
Event Location:RWTH Aachen
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:27.-29. Oktober 2014
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Aeronautics
HGF - Program Themes:air traffic management and operations
DLR - Research area:Aeronautics
DLR - Program:L AO - Air Traffic Management and Operation
DLR - Research theme (Project):L - Climate, Weather and Environment (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Transport Meteorology
Deposited By: Ziegele, Brigitte
Deposited On:05 Dec 2014 11:16
Last Modified:05 Dec 2014 11:16

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