Development and assessment of an indicator based model approach to enhance sustainability of future energy technology pathways in Germany (SEnSys)

Abstract

After the nuclear fallout in Japan, Germany decided to back out from nuclear energy while at the same time changing the energy supply from fossil to renewable sources. This elaborate plan, known as Energiewende, will require significant economic and structural efforts that will have profound impacts on the environment and society itself. It is therefore crucial to identify possible technological pathways that can lead to a renewable energy supply, while reducing negative impacts on a holistic scope. In order to analyse alternative energy technology scenarios in Germany, this thesis focuses on the development of an indicator-based numerical Sustainable Energy Systems (SEnSys) model approach. Other than previous approaches, the SEnSys model considers full aggregated impacts of technological pathways leading to future configurations. With the help of an exemplary case study on two alternative energy technology scenarios (Trieb1 and Trieb2), the feasibility of the SEnSys model in evaluating sustainability is subsequently assessed. The results can affirm the findings of previous studies concerning lower economic and environ- mental impacts for scenario Trieb2, with small shares of renewable energy imports, compared to scenario Trieb1 based on only local but fluctuating renewables. Additionally, the results are in accordance with other relevant studies, while offering new valuable insights to the topic. Given a comprehensive revision of the identified uncertainties and limitations, it can be stated that the SEnSys model bares the potential for further analysing and improving sustainability of energy technology scenarios in Germany and other countries.