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The new car market for electric vehicles and the potential for fuel substitution

Kihm, Alexander and Trommer, Stefan (2014) The new car market for electric vehicles and the potential for fuel substitution. Energy Policy (73), pp. 147-157. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.021 ISSN 0301-4215

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Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514003024

Abstract

Electric vehicles are expected to significantly reduce road transport emissions, given an increasingly renewable power generation. While technological issues are more and more being overcome, the economic viability and thus possible adoption is still constrained, mainly by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. In our work we analyze possible market developments for electric vehicles with an application to Germany. We develop a drivetrain choice model with economical, technical and social constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory. It estimates the demand for electric vehicles until 2030 for private and commercially registered cars as well as light commercial vehicles. The results show a replacement potential of almost one third of the total German annual mileage for these vehicles. The result has a high granularity to allow for detailed emission calculation along different spatial areas as well as vehicle and engine types. Besides a baseline forecast, our method allows for calculating different scenarios regarding policy actions or the future development of important parameters such as energy prices. The results provide insights for policy measures as well as for transport and environmental modeling.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/90777/
Document Type:Article
Title:The new car market for electric vehicles and the potential for fuel substitution
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Kihm, Alexanderalexander.kihm (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Trommer, Stefanstefan.trommer (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Date:October 2014
Journal or Publication Title:Energy Policy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
DOI :10.1016/j.enpol.2014.05.021
Page Range:pp. 147-157
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0301-4215
Status:Published
Keywords:Electric vehicles, BEV, PHEV, Fuel substitution, Total cost of ownership
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt II (old)
Location: Berlin-Adlershof
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Transport Research > Passenger Transport
Deposited By: Trommer, Stefan
Deposited On:02 Oct 2014 11:08
Last Modified:10 Jan 2019 15:47

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