Beyond NEOShield: A roadmap for near-Earth object impact mitigation

Abstract

The EU-FP7 NEOShield project, which commenced in January 2012, is funded until May 2015. The main goals of the project are to improve our knowledge of the mitigation-relevant physical characteristics of near-Earth objects (NEOs), and to investigate and assess feasible NEO deflection techniques. After a brief introduction to the nature of the impact hazard and what we should do about it, I will briefly discuss the NEOShield project and present some results to illustrate progress to date. Drawing on NEOShield experience, I will present a personal view of priorities for future scientific and technical work leading to a capability to deflect a threatening asteroid. A key task is to develop some understanding of the likely physical properties of the threatening NEO that will trigger the first deflection attempt. Much still needs to be done in terms of physical characterization of NEOs, using both ground-based telescopes and space probes for robotic exploration. In recent years not only have the scientific and space-technology communities begun to pay more attention to impact-hazard issues, but some national space agencies and international organizations are now investing significant funding in various endeavours, motivated by increased awareness of the problem. While it seems the stage is now set for coordinated international activities in pursuit of a response to the NEO impact threat, it remains to be seen if the momentum built up over the past few years can be maintained. We are still far removed from having an international agreement on who would do what, who would pay for what, and who would take responsibility for failure, in the event of a deflection action becoming necessary.