Why Controllers Seldom Stick to the Book and How Their Commands are Predictable Nevertheless

Abstract

Modern air traffic approach control often uses electronic assistance systems. Routing and sequencing suggestions are issued to support the controller. To provide these systems with data about future possible system states, the Mapped Exclusion Method (MEM) has been developed. MEM enables the prediction of a set of possible controller commands from radar data. The algorithm is rule based and uses operational knowledge of the airspace to predict future ATC commands. Using the OpenStreetMap geo-information system and the interpreted programming anguage Python, a software tool was developed which even enables ATC experts without programming knowledge to model their airport’s airspace. In combination with the author's experience as commercial airline pilot, flight tracks and controller pilot communication have been analyzed and relevant findings were implemented into functional software. For an inbound flight approximately 130 different command-value combinations are possible, from which 75% can be excluded on average, while the prediction error rate can be kept below 1%.