The Last-Mile Evacuation project: A multi-disciplinary to evacuation planning and risk reduction in tsunami-threatened coastal areas

Abstract

In view of recent tragic and disastrous tsunami events such as the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 or the Tohoku-Oki tsunami in 2011 it is still indispensable to aim at deepening our insight into the mechanisms which turn natural disasters into life-changing events for those individuals living at regions at risk. In this context risk mitigation on the basis of wellimplemented early warning systems is inevitable to reduce human losses and to pave the way for specific measures on disaster recovery. A possible work chain to assess this complex objective is exemplified by the interdisciplinary “Last-Mile Evacuation project” which focused on the city of Padang, Indonesia. This city is one of the cities worldwide most imperiled by tsunamis since it is located in the direct neighborhood to the Sunda arc with an average warning time below 30 minutes. The work chain presented in the present paper comprises the generation and compilation of the underlying geo data basis, the simulation of hydrodynamics, the assessment of physical vulnerability using remote sensing data and techniques, the assessment of social vulnerability related with people´s exposure, risk perception, and evacuation behavior, and the modeling of potential evacuation routes. While the main focus of the original project was on city-wide risk assessment, the focal point of this study is a close-up view of the micro-scale dynamics of inundation and evacuation on urban district level. The existing situation and urban setting is subsequently compared with alternative shelter options. Additionally, qualitative information on social aspects to be considered in developing appropriate mitigation options is outlined. It is anticipated to communicate best-practice knowledge on how to approach the assessment of tsunami hazard with potential overlapping areas to other natural disasters.