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Modelling customer choice and market development for future automotive powertrain technologies

Redelbach, Martin and Sparka, Michael and Schmid, Stephan and Friedrich, Horst (2013) Modelling customer choice and market development for future automotive powertrain technologies. EVS27 International Battery, hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium, 17.-20. November 2013, Barcelona, Spanien.

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Abstract

The paper introduces an innovative utility-based approach to model customer choice for alternative powertrain technologies within a dynamic scenario tool. The study covers a wide portfolio of different powertrain concepts from conventional combustion engines to advanced hybrid and electric cars. The assessment of their economic and technical attributes builds on a large set of vehicle simulation data and detailed cost models. In contrast to previous cost-based studies the applied methodology maps the observed diversity of user characteristics more realistically. Therefore, the driving behaviour and preferences of car buyers are analysed empirically based on major representative surveys and the resulting distribution functions are integrated in the model. After testing and validation with historic data the model is applied to the German vehicle market and a potential scenario for the prospective composition of the new passenger car fleet by 2030 is presented. The scenario simulation shows that a significant reduction of CO2 emissions is feasible especially by the introduction of plug-in hybrids and range extended electric vehicles. However, the growing technical complexity and the additional effort

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/87350/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Modelling customer choice and market development for future automotive powertrain technologies
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Redelbach, MartinDLRUNSPECIFIED
Sparka, MichaelDLRUNSPECIFIED
Schmid, StephanDLRUNSPECIFIED
Friedrich, HorstDLRUNSPECIFIED
Date:November 2013
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Status:Published
Keywords:Market potential, TCO, purchase and user behavior, hybrid and battery electric vehicles
Event Title:EVS27 International Battery, hybrid and Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Symposium
Event Location:Barcelona, Spanien
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:17.-20. November 2013
Organizer:IEEE Power Electronics Society
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Transport
HGF - Program Themes:Transport System
DLR - Research area:Transport
DLR - Program:V VS - Verkehrssystem
DLR - Research theme (Project):V - Verkehrsentwicklung und Umwelt (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts > Fahrzeugsysteme und Technologiebewertung
Deposited By: Schuster, Kristiane Maria
Deposited On:09 Jan 2014 13:38
Last Modified:08 May 2014 23:31

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