The role of rail in a transport system to limit the impact of global warming

Abstract

With global warming being a decisive factor in future transport developments rail will play an essential role in minimising transport emissions. The current transport system in Australia based on road vehicle and aviation is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, particularly oil. Measures to significantly reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of aviation and road travel are estimated to reduce mobility in Australia due to penalties of approximately 15-35% in terms of generalised utility. Australian transport infrastructure investment currently favours these modes which will see diminishing utilisation while rail can adapt without compromising performance and utilisation will increase. Passenger demand is estimated using utility based probability across the modes of aviation, rail and road vehicles calibrated to current decision behaviour. Regional business, non-business and commuter passenger travel is projected using a gravity model. Passenger movements are based on town to town travel information from National Visitor Survey (NVS) and Census data. Climate optimised flight paths coupled with biofuels as well as a proliferation of electric vehicles have been modelled as measures to reduce the emissions of road and aviation travel. Future transport infrastructure investment will require changed proportions from the recent past if it is to best serve Australia’s mobility in a low emission transport system.