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Preparation of an advanced TEC forecast based on the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric storms

Borries, Claudia and Berdermann, Jens and Jakowski, Norbert and Hoque, Mainul and Bothmer, Volker (2013) Preparation of an advanced TEC forecast based on the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric storms. 4th International Galileo Science Colloquium, 4.-6. Dez. 2013, Prag, Tschechien.

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The forecast of ionospheric conditions and especially of the total electron content (TEC) disturbances is a challenging task and currently of major interest to the space weather community. Short term (up to one hour) forecasting of TEC under quiet geomagnetic conditions is practiced at a few institutions worldwide. However, a forecast of up to 24 hours and more is requested by users in order to identify and mitigate the impact on communication systems at the earliest possible date. Solar storm induced geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations cause large errors in the forecast since measurements of the onset time, location of maximum perturbation, strength and type of storm deviate much from the climatology. Hence, ionospheric storms need first to be described by an appropriate model to ensure good forecast quality.\ The forecast of perturbed TEC is part of the Forecast System Ionosphere build under the umbrella of the FP7 project AFFECTS (Advanced Forecast For Ensuring Communication Through Space). We present the statistical analyses of numerous storm events observed in the TEC since 1995, which enables us to derive an empirical model to estimate and predict a most probable upcoming perturbed TEC over Europe. A crucial input to a forecast of perturbed TEC is the storm onset indicator. Therefore, we discuss a new storm onset definition based on ACE measurements.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/86671/
Document Type:Conference or Workshop Item (Speech)
Title:Preparation of an advanced TEC forecast based on the statistical analysis of historical ionospheric storms
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Borries, Claudiaclaudia.borries (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Berdermann, Jensjens.berdermann (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Jakowski, Norbertnorbert.jakowski (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Hoque, Mainulmainul.hoque (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Bothmer, VolkerInstitute for Astrophysics, University of GöttingenUNSPECIFIED
Date:5 December 2013
Refereed publication:No
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:No
Keywords:Ionosphere, Space Weather, Perturbation, Total Electron Content (TEC), Forecast
Event Title:4th International Galileo Science Colloquium
Event Location:Prag, Tschechien
Event Type:international Conference
Event Dates:4.-6. Dez. 2013
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Communication and Navigation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R KN - Kommunikation und Navigation
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Ionosphäre
Location: Neustrelitz
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Communication and Navigation > Navigation
Deposited By: Borries, Dr. Claudia
Deposited On:07 Jan 2014 08:16
Last Modified:08 May 2014 23:19

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