An assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean

Abstract

This work examines the extent to which tsunami forecasts from different numerical forecast systems might be expected to differ under real-time conditions. This is done through comparing tsunami amplitudes from a number of existing tsunami scenario databases for eight different hypothetical tsunami events within the Indian Ocean. Forecasts of maximum tsunami amplitude are examined at 10 output points distributed throughout the Indian Ocean at a range of depths. The results show that there is considerable variability in the forecasts and on average, the standard deviation of the maximum amplitudes is approximately 62% of the mean value. It is also shown that a significant portion of this diversity can be attributed to the different lengths of the scenario time series. These results have implications for the interoperability of Regional Tsunami Service Providers in the Indian Ocean.