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An assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean

Greenslade, Diana J.M. and Annunziato, Alessandro and Babeyko, Andrey Y. and Burbidge, David R. and Ellguth, Enrico and Horspool, Nick and Kumar, T.Srinivasa and Kumar, Ch.Patanjali and Moore, ChristopherW. and Rakowsky, Natalja and Riedlinger, Torsten and Ruangrassamee, Anat and Srivihok, Patchanok and Titov, Vasily V. (2014) An assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean. Continental Shelf Research, 79, pp. 36-45. Elsevier. DOI: 10.1016/j.csr.2013.06.001 ISSN 0278-4343

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Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278434313002021

Abstract

This work examines the extent to which tsunami forecasts from different numerical forecast systems might be expected to differ under real-time conditions. This is done through comparing tsunami amplitudes from a number of existing tsunami scenario databases for eight different hypothetical tsunami events within the Indian Ocean. Forecasts of maximum tsunami amplitude are examined at 10 output points distributed throughout the Indian Ocean at a range of depths. The results show that there is considerable variability in the forecasts and on average, the standard deviation of the maximum amplitudes is approximately 62% of the mean value. It is also shown that a significant portion of this diversity can be attributed to the different lengths of the scenario time series. These results have implications for the interoperability of Regional Tsunami Service Providers in the Indian Ocean.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/86454/
Document Type:Article
Title:An assessment of the diversity in scenario-based tsunami forecasts for the Indian Ocean
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthors ORCID iD
Greenslade, Diana J.M.d.greenslade (at) bom.gov.auUNSPECIFIED
Annunziato, AlessandroUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Babeyko, Andrey Y.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Burbidge, David R.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Ellguth, EnricoUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Horspool, NickUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kumar, T.SrinivasaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Kumar, Ch.PatanjaliUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Moore, ChristopherW.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Rakowsky, NataljaUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Riedlinger, Torstentorsten.riedlinger (at) dlr.deUNSPECIFIED
Ruangrassamee, AnatUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Srivihok, PatchanokUNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Titov, Vasily V.UNSPECIFIEDUNSPECIFIED
Date:2014
Journal or Publication Title:Continental Shelf Research
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:79
DOI :10.1016/j.csr.2013.06.001
Page Range:pp. 36-45
Editors:
EditorsEmail
Collins, MichaelUNSPECIFIED
Sternberg, RichardUNSPECIFIED
Publisher:Elsevier
ISSN:0278-4343
Status:Published
Keywords:Tsunami Tsunami forecast Indian Ocean Intercomparison Real-time
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Vorhaben Zivile Kriseninformation und Georisiken (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:German Remote Sensing Data Center > Geo Risks and Civil Security
Deposited By: Riedlinger, Dr.rer.nat. Torsten
Deposited On:14 Jan 2014 14:24
Last Modified:07 Jul 2015 16:00

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