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Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030

Propfe, Bernd and Kreyenberg, Danny and Schmid, Stephan and Wind, Jörg (2013) Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy, 38 (13), pp. 5201-5208. Elsevier. doi: 10.1016/j.ijhydene.2013.02.049. ISSN 0360-3199.

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Official URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360319913004151


electric powertrains, such as battery electric vehicles (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and hybridized combustion engine vehicles (HEV). In this context, the German government has set the target of one million electric vehicles on the road by 2020, and six million by 2030. The goal of this paper is to identify the possible market share of electric vehicles in the German new car fleet in three scenarios in the timeframe from 2010 to 2030. The VECTOR21 vehicle technology scenario model is used to model the fleet in three scenarios. In the reference scenario with business-as-usual parameters, 189,000 electric vehicles will be sold in Germany by 2020. Scenario two with purchase price incentives from 5000 EUR, high oil prices, and low prices for hydrogen and electricity will result in 727,000 vehicles. In the last scenario with substantial OEM mark-up reductions and external conditions as in the business-as-usual scenario, 3.28 million vehicles will be sold. Analysis shows that the market success of alternative powertrain vehicles depends to a great extent on external conditions. Without purchase price incentives, rising oil prices, and low energy costs for hydrogen and electricity, alternative powertrains will not enter the market. However, OEMs could stimulate the market if they accept negative mark-ups in the first 10 years after market introduction.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/85490/
Document Type:Article
Title:Market penetration analysis of electric vehicles in the German passenger car market towards 2030
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iDORCID Put Code
Date:16 March 2013
Journal or Publication Title:International Journal of Hydrogen Energy
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:No
Gold Open Access:No
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Page Range:pp. 5201-5208
Keywords:Electric vehicles (EV) Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) Battery electric vehicles (BEV) Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) Experience curve Market penetration
HGF - Research field:Energy
HGF - Program:Technology, Innovation and Society
HGF - Program Themes:Renewable Energy (old)
DLR - Research area:Energy
DLR - Program:E MS - Systems analysis
DLR - Research theme (Project):E - Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment (old)
Location: Stuttgart
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Vehicle Concepts
Institute of Transport Research
Deposited By: Kreyenberg, Danny
Deposited On:09 Jan 2014 12:59
Last Modified:29 Jan 2014 15:49

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