Calculating Potential Emission Reductions through the Introduction of Electric Vehicles

Abstract

Electric vehicles are expected to significantly reduce road transport emissions, given an increasingly renewable power generation. While technological issues are more and more being overcome, the economic viability and thus possible adoption is still constrained, mainly by higher prices than for conventional vehicles. However, first vehicles have been available on the market for some time now and many more are expected to arrive soon and at decreasing cost. In our work we analyze the possible market development for electric vehicles with an application to Germany. We develop a drivetrain choice model with economical, technical and social constraints on the current vehicle registrations and inventory. It estimates the demand for electric vehicles until 2030 for private and commercially registered cars as well as light commercial vehicles. The results show a replacement potential of more than one fourth of the total German annual mileage for these vehicles. The result has a high granularity to allow for detailed emission calculation along different spatial areas as well as vehicle and engine types. Besides a baseline forecast, our method allows for calculating different scenarios regarding policy actions or the future development of important parameters such as energy prices. The results provide insights for policy measures as well as for transport and environmental modeling.