Assessment of Transport Technologies: A Multi-Criteria Framework for Decision Making

Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions has constantly been an objective in transport policy making. One possible approach to reach this goal is to increase fuel-efficiency. Restrictive emission policies have already led to vehicle technology improvements and thus reduced fleet emissions. Another possible way to reach emission reduction goals is to increase traffic efficiency by means of information and communication technologies. Smooth traffic, less stops and constant speeds are indicators for higher traffic effectiveness and decreasing transport emissions. Certain changes in traffic behaviour are necessary to reach these goals. The potential of fuel efficiency increase through changed driver behaviour is significant and advanced assistant systems can play an important role to improve it on a sustainable level. In several research projects assistant systems which help drivers to reduce their personal fuel consumption and thus lower the overall traffic emissions are evaluated. The type of recommendation given to the driver (e.g. about speed adjustment) relies here on the current traffic situation and is provided via visual, acoustic or haptic messages. The assessment of new technologies includes the evaluation of all kinds of effects a certain technology such as the driver assistant system may provoke. In several technology assessment approaches the conclusion has been that there is not a single best procedure that could be applied to any assessment objective. It is rather intended to consider all relevant effects and reduce the probability of wrong judgements about the outcome. Helpful for those making decisions later on whether these technologies should be realized or not can be a multi-criteria framework which includes technical and non-technical information retrieved during the assessment process. Such a framework is based on available data – which may be qualitative (user perception, expert judgement) or quantitative (traffic simulation, field test measurement) – and used to compare alternatives and assist in decision making. The multi-criteria analysis as a feasible method for technology assessment and aspects of uncertainty will be discussed.