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Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change

Silva, R.A. and West, J.J. and Zhang, Y. and Anenberg, S.C. and Lamarque, J.-F. and Shindell, D.T. and Collins, W.J. and Dalsoren, S. and Faluvegi, G. and Folberth, G. and Horowitz, L. and Nagashima, T. and Naik, V. and Rumbold, S. and Skeie, R. and Sudo, K. and Takemura, T. and Bergmann, D. and Cameron-Smith, P. and Cionni, I. and Doherty, R.M. and Eyring, Veronika and Josse, B. and MacKenzie, I.A. and Plummer, D.A. and Righi, Mattia and Stevenson, D.S. and Strode, S. and Szopa, S. and Zeng, G. (2013) Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 8, pp. 1-11. Institute of Physics (IOP) Publishing. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005 ISSN 1748-9326

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Official URL: http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034005/pdf/1748-9326_8_3_034005.pdf

Abstract

Increased concentrations of ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) since preindustrial times reflect increased emissions, but also contributions of past climate change. Here we use modeled concentrations from an ensemble of chemistry–climate models to estimate the global burden of anthropogenic outdoor air pollution on present-day premature human mortality, and the component of that burden attributable to past climate change. Using simulated concentrations for 2000 and 1850 and concentration–response functions (CRFs), we estimate that, at present, 470 000 (95% confidence interval, 140 000 to 900 000) premature respiratory deaths are associated globally and annually with anthropogenic ozone, and 2.1 (1.3 to 3.0) million deaths with anthropogenic PM2.5-related cardiopulmonary diseases (93%) and lung cancer (7%). These estimates are smaller than ones from previous studies because we use modeled 1850 air pollution rather than a counterfactual low concentration, and because of different emissions.

Item URL in elib:https://elib.dlr.de/81850/
Document Type:Article
Title:Global premature mortality due to anthropogenic outdoor air pollution and the contribution of past climate change
Authors:
AuthorsInstitution or Email of AuthorsAuthor's ORCID iD
Silva, R.A.Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North CarolinaUNSPECIFIED
West, J.J.Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North CarolinaUNSPECIFIED
Zhang, Y.Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North CarolinaUNSPECIFIED
Anenberg, S.C.US Environmental Protection Agency, WashingtonUNSPECIFIED
Lamarque, J.-F.NCAR, Boulder, CO, USAUNSPECIFIED
Shindell, D.T.NASA-GISS/Columbia Univ., New York, NY, USAUNSPECIFIED
Collins, W.J.Department of Meteorology, University of ReadingUNSPECIFIED
Dalsoren, S.CICERO, OsloUNSPECIFIED
Faluvegi, G.NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia Earth Institute, New YorkUNSPECIFIED
Folberth, G.Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met OfficeUNSPECIFIED
Horowitz, L.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USAUNSPECIFIED
Nagashima, T.National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, JUNSPECIFIED
Naik, V.NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USAUNSPECIFIED
Rumbold, S.Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction, Met OfficeUNSPECIFIED
Skeie, R.CICERO, Blindern, Oslo, NUNSPECIFIED
Sudo, K.Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, JapanUNSPECIFIED
Takemura, T.Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka, JUNSPECIFIED
Bergmann, D.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA UNSPECIFIED
Cameron-Smith, P.Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, USA UNSPECIFIED
Cionni, I.ENEA, Bologna, Italy UNSPECIFIED
Doherty, R.M.School of GeoSciences, University of EdinburghUNSPECIFIED
Eyring, VeronikaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Josse, B. Météo-France, Toulouse, FUNSPECIFIED
MacKenzie, I.A.School of GeoSciences, University of EdinburghUNSPECIFIED
Plummer, D.A.Environment Canada, Toronto, CNDUNSPECIFIED
Righi, MattiaDLR, IPAUNSPECIFIED
Stevenson, D.S.Univ. of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UKUNSPECIFIED
Strode, S.NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA UNSPECIFIED
Szopa, S.LSCE-IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette, FUNSPECIFIED
Zeng, G.National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand UNSPECIFIED
Date:2013
Journal or Publication Title:Environmental Research Letters
Refereed publication:Yes
Open Access:Yes
Gold Open Access:Yes
In SCOPUS:Yes
In ISI Web of Science:Yes
Volume:8
DOI :10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034005
Page Range:pp. 1-11
Publisher:Institute of Physics (IOP) Publishing
ISSN:1748-9326
Status:Published
Keywords:ozone, chemistry-climate, climate change, human health
HGF - Research field:Aeronautics, Space and Transport
HGF - Program:Space
HGF - Program Themes:Earth Observation
DLR - Research area:Raumfahrt
DLR - Program:R EO - Erdbeobachtung
DLR - Research theme (Project):R - Projekt ESMVal (old)
Location: Oberpfaffenhofen
Institutes and Institutions:Institute of Atmospheric Physics > Atmospheric Dynamics
Deposited By: Ziegele, Brigitte
Deposited On:07 Nov 2013 13:02
Last Modified:08 Mar 2018 18:53

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