A nation-wide macroscopic freight traffic model

Abstract

It has long since been recognised that it is insufficient to estimate freight flows as a part of passenger transport models. However, there is still no established standard for dedicated commercial traffic models, like there is in private traffic. A reason can be seen in the complexity of the topic and in the scarcity of representative data. In order to bridge this gap, available data has to be put to its best use. Models which are able to take all the complexity of logistics into account will have to be limited to narrow fields (i.e. a restricted area, one transport mode, one commodity group or such) due to the high expectations towards data quality. Furthermore, a generally applicable model will have to be based on simplified assumptions. This contribution describes a general, scalable, multimodal freight flow model. The model is developed as a 6-Step-Model for the area of Germany for the spatial level of NUTS 3. It also links with all European countries as aggregated traffic zones (NUTS 0). Global trade is connected through seaports and airports. Within the model 60 business branches are distinguished that are related to the transport of 20 type of goods (NST 2007). The multimodal approach allows a choice of 12 means of transport on road, rail or inland waterways. Furthermore, the model also distinguishes between loaded and empty runs. The model is intended to calculate freight flows on a large scale. Scenario techniques can be used to forecast the freight flows based on changes in conditions of all sorts, e.g. economic developments, employment structures, spatial development. This development in modelling extends our knowledge in the use of the existing data, the understanding of them in relation to the description of commercial traffic and is an important step in large scale freight traffic modelling.